Bitcoin Set For Best Q3 In Nine Years Despite Latest Pullback

Bitcoin is about to sign its best third quarter since 2017, with a gain of more than 42% since early July. However, the return of the price below 83,000 dollars weakens this performance before the release of decisive US data.

Bitcoin retains more than 40% gains in the third quarter

Bitcoin ended the week at 84,450 dollars, its highest weekly closing level since late January. Then, the price fell to 82,557 dollars, amid tensions between the United States and Iran and liquidity movements on exchange platforms.

BTC is trading around 83,800 dollars on September 29, after reaching 84,239 dollars the previous day. It thus remains below its annual opening price, set around 88,700 dollars, less than two days before the quarter close.

Several levels now summarize the power balance :

• 88,700 dollars correspond to the 2026 opening price ;
• 86,000 dollars represent the estimated average cost of US Bitcoin ETF buyers ;
• 82,500 dollars constitute the immediate technical support ;
• 80,500 dollars correspond to the average price of corporate treasuries ;
• 76,700 dollars mark the average cost of active investors.

Buyers who entered the market in the past four weeks remain generally profitable. Their average acquisition price is near 78,300 dollars, according to CryptoQuant data.

The third quarter of 2026 becomes the best in nine years

Bitcoin shows a quarterly advance of about 42.6%. One has to go back to the third quarter of 2017, marked by a gain close to 79.6%, to find a higher performance over this period of the year.

The current rise represents almost five times the average performance of third quarters since 2013, estimated at 8.6%. It also contrasts with several difficult years. Bitcoin notably lost 10.8% in the third quarter of 2019 and 14.7% in 2014.

However, this performance does not guarantee an automatic continuation of the rise. The fourth quarter has historically produced an average return close to 77%, but this average remains strongly influenced by exceptional rallies in early cycles, notably in 2013 and 2017.

The closing on September 30 will determine the final result of BTC in the third quarter of 2026. A rapid drop could still reduce the quarterly gain, even though a complete reversal seems unlikely given the lead accumulated since July.

US inflation and employment could revive volatility

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the personal consumption expenditures index for August on September 30. The market expects a 3.6% increase year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. In July, PCE inflation had reached 3.7% year-on-year.

Higher-than-expected inflation would strengthen expectations of monetary tightening. On September 28, contracts tracked by CME FedWatch assigned a 70.3% probability to a new 0.25 point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, compared to 57.7% a week earlier.

The US employment report for September will follow on October 2. The official schedule of the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that economists expect about 83,000 job creations, after the 162,000 positions added in August.

A labor market stronger than expected could support bets on another rate hike. This scenario could potentially weigh on bitcoin and other assets sensitive to liquidity conditions.

The 82,500 dollar support becomes decisive

Analyst Rekt Capital compares the current bitcoin structure to its exit from the 2022 bear market. The price then built a long accumulation zone around 30,000 dollars in 2023.

“In this cycle, the level around 82,500 dollars corresponds to the top of the 2022 accumulation zone,” he explains. Maintaining above this threshold would allow bitcoin to form a new consolidation phase before a possible recovery.

A sustained break below 82,500 dollars would weaken this historical comparison. According to the analyst, BTC could then re-enter its previous range between 60,000 and 80,000 dollars. This projection remains a chart scenario, not a certain forecast.