Bitcoin Shortage On OTC Desks Raises Alarm

While the bitcoin market seems stuck in a waiting phase, reserves are running low on OTC desks, those platforms where institutions buy without moving prices. The company Strategy, which has already acquired more than 182,000 BTC this year, finds itself on the front line. Facing a drying supply, pressure is mounting. What if the next bullish shock was preparing… silently ?

OTC desks running low

Warning signs intensify in over-the-counter (OTC) markets, where financial institutions traditionally acquire their bitcoins without disturbing market prices, while the leading crypto is losing momentum.

Trader Bedlam Capital Pres revealed a critical situation. “MSTR buys most of its bitcoins through over-the-counter (OTC) platforms. Since the beginning of the year, the company has acquired 182,391 BTC“, he states, referring to Strategy’s accumulation strategy.

$MSTR buys most of its BTC from OTC trade desks.

MSTR bought 182,391 BTC YTD.

OTC trade desks' collective balances are down to around 155,000 BTC.

As the OTC desks run low, the demand on the public exchanges will increase, and that is what will uncork BTC's price. pic.twitter.com/MYkOMcCp3u

— Bedlam Capital Pres (@BedlamPres) August 6, 2025

This figure is all the more significant as OTC desk balances now only hold around 155,000 BTC. A historically low threshold, putting the market facing an imbalance between available supply and growing institutional demand.

In this context, Bedlam Capital Pres estimates that pressure will inevitably shift to public exchange platforms, amplifying the risk of a supply shock : “as OTC platforms dry up, demand will shift to public exchanges, and that is what will uncork the price of the flagship crypto “.

This scenario fits into a general scarcity trend. According to Glassnode, combined BTC reserves on exchanges have fallen to 2.919 million. In summary, the market faces several converging factors :

• A continuous decline in OTC reserves, below Strategy’s annual demand alone ;

• A significant reduction in reserves on exchanges, signaling a withdrawal of BTC available for sale ;

• Persistent institutional demand, led by companies like Strategy, which buys BTC almost every week regardless of price.

This setup strengthens the hypothesis of an imminent supply-demand imbalance, a situation conducive to a rapid price rise if demand continues to pour in.

Mass profit-taking: a short-term braking dynamic

Alongside this supply shortage on OTC markets and exchanges, the market experiences a very different movement: a wave of large-scale profit-taking, notably by long-term holders.

According to Glassnode, profits realized in just one day on Wednesday exceeded $1 billion. The details are revealing : “$362 million, about 35.8%, comes from ancient bitcoins held for 7 to 10 years – a rare event that could reflect either internal transfers or true market exits “, specifies the firm on X.

Over the past 24h, #Bitcoin holders realized over $1B in profit. $362M (≈35.8%) came from ancient coins held for 7–10 years – a rare event that may reflect internal transfers or true exits. Another $93M came from 1–2 year holders, also marking notable profit realization. pic.twitter.com/vBZIRarTcM

— glassnode (@glassnode) August 6, 2025

Another significant volume, $93 million, comes from holders who retained their bitcoins between 1 and 2 years. These figures indicate an outflow of liquidity from historically stable profiles.

This ambiguous context strengthens the uncertainty about the market’s future developments. On one side, a potential supply scarcity, and on the other, a selling dynamic that could restrain any immediate bullish push.

Despite structural signals favorable to a bullish recovery, the market remains tense, weakened by a still cautious or even opportunistic investor psychology. If the supply shock materializes, it could face demand less dynamic than expected, notably due to some investors’ reluctance to accumulate further in an uncertain environment. Conversely, if demand picks up, the lack of supply could amplify the rise, which could lead bitcoin toward $148,000.