Bitcoin Slumps To 3-week Low As Market Repositions

Bitcoin briefly plunged below $109,000, recording a three-week low. Hours before the expiration of $22 billion in options, scheduled this Friday, pressure is rising among investors. In a context of increased volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties, positions are being urgently readjusted. The crypto market is entering a decisive sequence where each broken level could amplify the upcoming movements.

Series of Liquidations and a Strategic Pullback

The bitcoin price dropped below $109,000, briefly reaching $108,700, its lowest level in over three weeks. This fall caused instability on exchange platforms, leading to the liquidation of over $275 million in leveraged long positions.

Such a situation coincides with the approach of the monthly expiration of $22 billion in BTC options. This deadline is putting particularly strong pressure on traders trying to reposition themselves urgently. Thus, they have reduced their bullish positions, signaling a mixed market sentiment before the options expire.

Data from Binance and OKX platforms clearly illustrate the ongoing tactical adjustments in the market :

• On Binance, “top traders” reduced their long positions Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping the long/short ratio to 1.7x, its lowest level in over 30 days, before slightly rising again to 1.9x ;

• On OKX, institutional investors took the opposite bet by massively increasing their long positions, raising the long/short ratio to 4.2x on Thursday, its highest level in two weeks ;

• However, the sudden drop of BTC below $109,000 surprised them, forcing a reduction in leverage at a loss ;

• The power balance between put and call options is also closely watched: if BTC does not climb back above $110,000 this Friday morning, put options would gain an estimated advantage of $1 billion over call options.

This tense atmosphere reveals a market in rapid tactical recomposition at the very short term, dominated by nervousness around this major technical deadline.

Signals of Resilience

Beyond the immediate pressure exerted by derivatives, other indicators provide a more nuanced reading of the current situation. Indeed, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium, an indicator of traders’ bullish or bearish sentiment, remains stable at 5 %, in a neutral zone between 5 % and 10 %.

This stability suggests a certain prudence from institutional investors but without widespread panic. Similarly, on-chain data also reveal that open interest on derivatives products remains robust at $79 billion, slightly declining only 3 % over two days. Some analysts expect relief from selling pressure after options expire, emphasizing the market’s recent ability to absorb shocks without structural break.

In parallel, another factor tempers the bearish reading: net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. On Wednesday, the listed products registered $241 million in inflows, a not insignificant figure amid volatility.

This flow suggests that investors, likely institutional, are taking advantage of the decline to reposition themselves medium term. Finally, in Asia, Tether (USDT) in offshore yuan is currently trading at a 0.3% premium versus the official USD/CNY rate, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish demand for cryptos in China. Usually, a discount in this market would be interpreted as a risk flight signal, which is not the case currently.

These signals of relative stability and strategic positioning could indicate that the market anticipates a rebound after options expiration, or even a reshuffling of the cards if the $110,000 threshold is crossed in the coming hours. However, the U.S. macroeconomic context, notably the threat of a government shutdown and labor market uncertainties, fuels underlying volatility making any projection delicate. In this environment, this Friday could prove decisive: a close above $110,000 would give a clear advantage back to bulls betting on an explosive October, while a failure would prolong the technical pressure.