Bitcoin Still In Its Range: Can The Fed Finally Cause The Breakout?

As I explained in my analysis last week, Bitcoin remains for now in a totally lateral market. The scenario I envisaged continues to unfold: the price oscillates between the 80,000-82,000 dollar zone and the 75,000-76,000 dollar zone, which currently acts as support. And personally, I decided to take advantage of this range rather than try to anticipate a breakout that still hasn’t happened.

Bitcoin remains trapped in the same range

I therefore opened a short position when Bitcoin came back around 80,000 dollars, before closing it in the 76,000 dollar zone. This is precisely an area where I prefer to secure my profits, because we are still in a lateral channel on the daily time frame and selling aggressively on support does not really make much sense in my opinion.

In the end, a small trade with a little more than 4,000 dollars profit. Nothing extraordinary, but it’s exactly the kind of market where I prefer to take what it gives me rather than desperately look for a 10 or 15% move

A simple trade within the range

ETFs remain rather bearish

On the Bitcoin spot ETF side, we also continue to observe several days of net outflows. The amounts remain relatively limited, but the recent dynamics are clearly not as aggressive on the buying side as what we previously experienced.

This is not necessarily an extremely bearish signal on its own, but in a Bitcoin stuck in its range, the absence of strong institutional buying pressure does not really help the market to break through the 80,000-82,000 dollar zone

A week that could become much more volatile

The situation could however change very quickly this week with the decisions of the American Federal Reserve. The Fed meeting should be one of the main market catalysts and may cause a clear increase in volatility.

For now, I am not convinced that the Fed will cut rates at this meeting. The latest US employment figures have been relatively strong, which still gives the Fed arguments not to rush into a rate cut.

Obviously, the market can have a different interpretation, and it is precisely for that reason that I expect more volatility around the announcement

For now, no need to complicate things: the market is lateral, I buy the low areas, I sell the high areas and I wait for Bitcoin to finally show us in which direction it wants to go out.