Bitcoin surpasses $120,000: Beware of short-term pullback according to RSI

After long days of consolidation, bitcoin shows signs of life again: it rises, regains color. Several drivers have kicked in: institutional inflows, favorable technical signals, a slightly more lenient macro context. The crypto market seems to regain energy, even though some indicators advise caution. The question becomes: is this momentum enough to shape a new bullish wave or is it preparing a beneficial pause? The crypto scene is entering a pivotal phase.

Bitcoin flirts with excess: RSI warns of an imminent pause

Yesterday, the bitcoin price crossed the $119,500 mark, but technical signals make analysts uneasy. The 4-hour RSI flirts with 90/100, a level classically associated with “overbought” zones. This technical threshold is concerning because it often signals consolidation.

On X, Roman warns: “Everything is overbought, but no sign of initial weakness. Simple break and retest“.

This message reflects a tense but optimistic climate. Despite overheating, no clear reversal is visible. The MACD indicator remains bullish, and volumes support the momentum. A return to $116,000–117,000 would be healthy before targeting $124,000, as envisaged by the same analyst.

The crypto market thus evolves in a tension between pure technicals and bullish ambitions. A technical pullback could strengthen the base for the next upsurge, rather than signal a peak.

Bitcoin ETFs: billions reshaping the market map

Meanwhile, flows to spot Bitcoin ETFs are massive. In three days, these funds attracted over $1.6 billion, according to Farside Investors. On October 1 alone, $676 million entered, including $405 million for BlackRock’s IBIT fund. The latter has now joined the global top 20 ETFs. This influx marks a new era.

Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, comments:

Someone asked me when it would enter the Top 10. It’s $50B away. If it repeats the last 12 months, it shouldn’t take long. 

These words reveal the scale of the institutional momentum. The arrival of massive capital in a still young crypto market changes the balance: it makes BTC more liquid, more “mainstream,” but also more sensitive to macroeconomic expectations. 

ETFs anchor Bitcoin in diversified long-term portfolios, bringing it closer to traditional assets. This is a strategic step for its legitimacy.

Macro, shutdown, rates: what the context tells the crypto market

Bitcoin’s rebound is not explained only by internal dynamics. The macroeconomic climate has clearly played a role. The US shutdown was an indirect trigger: markets anticipate a slowdown in economic data release, which potentially delays Fed decisions. 

Less data = fewer short-term rate hikes. For an asset like bitcoin, this acts as a tailwind.

At the same time, some analysts note that gold, a classic safe haven, has also surged. This flight to non-state assets fuels interest in bitcoin, seen as an alternative both technological and monetary. And the famous seasonal effect plays a role too: October is statistically one of the best months for cryptos.

Key facts to remember now

• $1.6B injected into Bitcoin ETFs in just three days;
• 4h RSI at 90/100, signaling a technical overbought zone;
• Global top 20: IBIT establishes itself as an institutional heavyweight;
• BTC at the highest in 2 months, with bullish ambitions up to $124,000;
• US shutdown = potential brake on rate hikes, favorable environment for cryptos.

Early this morning, bitcoin touched $121,000 before falling back to $120,050 at writing time.

Bitcoin is back, and the momentum is clear. Technical signals argue for short-term breathing space. But several experts believe that if flows continue and the context remains stable, the year-end could be historic for the king of cryptos.