Bitcoin : The slowdown in hodlers' sales revives hope for a rebound

The current signal on bitcoin is quite clear: long-term holders are selling less, and this reduces some of the pressure that weighed on the market. VanEck talks about a “potentially constructive” bias, which does not mean immediate euphoria, but rather ground that stops slipping away under buyers’ feet.

Old bitcoins move less

This change happens in a still nervous market. Bitcoin trades around 71,000 dollars on March 20, 2026, while the macro environment remains tense after the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady and the rise of geopolitical uncertainties. In other words, the foundation improves a bit, but the ceiling has not disappeared.

The central point of VanEck’s report is simple: older wallets are spending less of their bitcoin. The transfer volume dropped month-on-month in all coin age groups, suggesting that the most experienced players are distributing their holdings less than before.

In the same movement, the active supply held by long-term investors went from 31% to 30%. It is not a collapse. It is rather a discreet, almost silent slide, indicating that a slightly smaller share of the old stock circulates in the short term.

This kind of signal matters because the bitcoin market often reverses through wear, not spectacle. When the oldest hands sell less, distribution pressure falls. This does not guarantee an immediate rise, but it removes a real weight on the supply side.

Miners are not panicking yet

The other important lesson concerns Bitcoin miners. Their economic situation worsened over the past month: total revenue fell by 11% and sector stocks lost about 7%. However, their outflows to exchanges increased by only 1% in BTC.

This detail deserves close attention. Miners are not in massive capitulation mode. They remain under pressure, but they have not yet turned this pressure into waves of brutal sales. This is one less potential brake for the short-term market.

The nuance, however, is harsher. VanEck estimates that miners hold about 684,000 BTC excluding Bitcoin wallets attributed to Satoshi, down about 0.5% year-on-year, while about 164,000 new BTC were mined in the same period. In plain terms, the sector has almost covered its costs by selling most of the new issuance. And if the price drops sustainably, this restraint may not last.

A calmer blockchain in a more mature market

The report also shows a marked slowdown in on-chain activity. Transfer volume fell by 31%, daily fees by 27%, active addresses by 5%, and average fees by 40% over 30 days. Only the total number of transactions slightly increased.

Taken alone, this picture might seem bearish. But VanEck offers a more subtle reading: a growing share of activity is migrating off-chain, towards listed products, derivatives, and other financial channels that do not necessarily create direct settlements on the Bitcoin blockchain. The market is becoming more institutional, thus sometimes less visible through the network’s historical indicators alone.

But to turn this support into a clear recovery, macroeconomics must stop sending contradictory signals. Because nothing is decided yet: Polymarket and Kalshi still see bitcoin below 55,000 dollars by December.