Bitcoin: Headed for New Highs by Year-End?

Bitcoin has broken records ten times this year. Spending Christmas closer to 150,000 dollars than to 100,000 dollars is not far-fetched.

The Fed takes the floor

We are currently at 9 % of a new all-time high ($124,290). Will we go higher in 2025 ? Here are three reasons to be convinced. The first is the upcoming Fed rate cut.

There is a good chance the U.S. central bank will cut its key rate this Thursday, September 18. This is at least what BlackRock predicts. Likewise Christopher Waller, member of the Fed’s Board of Governors and potential successor to Jerome Powell.

“We need to begin cutting rates at the next meeting“, he said following the recent revision of U.S. employment figures (the largest revision in history). “Several rate cuts are possible over the coming months”.

The Fed will soon join the global rate-cutting cycle. There have been 88 worldwide since the start of the year. According to Bank of America, 2025 is on track to become the third fastest global rate-cutting cycle ever recorded.

As a result, global money supply is up 9.3 % year-over-year. It equals $140 trillion. By the way, the U.S. money supply increases on average by 7 % per year. This has been the case since the beginning of the last century.

In short, global liquidity is about to explode. This bodes very well for bitcoin, of which there will never be more than 21 million units…

Treasury Bitcoin Company

The second driver is undoubtedly the institutional rush. Not a day goes by without a company or investment fund announcing accumulating bitcoins.

Just yesterday, it was the company Hashkey that set itself the goal of becoming the “largest Bitcoin Treasury Company in Asia”. To do this, it will have to surpass Metaplanet which has already accumulated over 20,000 BTC.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies currently represent one quarter of companies holding bitcoins. Their specificity is to issue shares and bonds aimed at institutional investors who are not allowed to buy bitcoins. These are typically pension funds managing thousands of billions of dollars…

Just today, the Arizona State pension fund bought shares issued by Strategy, the pioneering firm in the field which owns more than 638,000 bitcoins. Banking giant JPMorgan believes institutional adoption is just beginning.

River expects the private sector to invest $67 billion in 2025. To compare with $31 billion for the whole of last year, an increase of 116 % :

Globally, the private sector already holds 6.2 % of the 21 million bitcoins. This represents 1.3 million BTC spread across the balance sheets of over 300 major entities. Accumulation occurs at a rate of 1,755 BTC per day, four times the natural supply.

Two French companies have climbed into the top quartile of the global top 100: Sequans and Capital B. They respectively own 3,200 BTC and 2,200 BTC. Knowing that Capital B aims for 1 % of the 21 million bitcoins, more than 200,000 BTC.

Don’t miss our article on French Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Bitcoin, France catches up.

Nations join the dance

It’s hard to say when the United States will take action. But there is reason to be very optimistic given recent statements.

The SEC chairman, Paul Atkins, believes that if the United States does not adopt cryptocurrencies, “other countries will”. Patrick Witt, Donald Trump’s new crypto advisor, declared that the strategic reserve of bitcoins is a priority.

While waiting for D-day, some countries are taking the lead. This is the case for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The two Central Asian countries have just announced back-to-back adding bitcoin to their foreign exchange reserves.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko urged banks to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions. This is what Russia is doing, notably via Kyrgyzstan…

The world is changing and everyone knows the BRICS no longer want the dollar. Gold has been in vogue since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Its share in global international reserves now reaches 24 %, its highest level in 30 years.

At the same time, the dollar’s share has dropped to 42 %, its lowest level since the mid-1990s. Gold is now the second global reserve currency after having surpassed the euro last year.

In other words, the time for bitcoin has come. Less BTC is mined than gold (compared to the total stock). Knowing that bitcoin supply halves every four years and moves almost freely at the speed of light.

Finally, note that the United States could weaken the BRICS by selling their 8,000 tons of gold to buy bitcoins…

So, where will we be at the end of the year? Higher.

Don’t miss our article: The CEO of blackRock talks about Bitcoin again.