Bitcoin : Traders Bet on a Late Surge in 2026

For some crypto bettors, the highlight moment for bitcoin would not be immediate, but concentrated at the end of the year 2026. On Polymarket, December remains the favorite month, around 16 to 17% probability, ahead of October and November.

December Takes the Lead in Expectations

Prediction markets see bitcoin finishing 2026 stronger than it starts. Finbold, relying on Polymarket, shows that December still leads the dance, with October and November right behind. The message is clear. Traders don’t really buy the idea of a big surge in spring. They are rather watching the last turn of the year.

This bias towards the end of the year is also visible in the volumes observed on monthly contracts. December was among the most followed months, but November even showed higher volume, which reflects a conviction building over several months, not on a single isolated bet. In short, bitcoin is not just aiming for a jump. It is beginning to draw a bullish window spread between autumn and winter.

However, one must keep a nuance. Polymarket is not a crystal ball. It is a thermometer of conviction. The platform also reminds that prices reflect implicit probabilities coming from buyers and sellers who risk real capital, with over 605,000 dollars of volume already traded on this specific market. This makes the signal interesting, but not infallible.

Seasonality Supports the Scenario, Without Guaranteeing It

Why does this bet on the end of the year come back so often? Because bitcoin’s history clearly leans towards the fourth quarter. Data sourced from CoinGlass shows that Q4 is, over a long period, the strongest quarter, with a historical average around 77% to 85% depending on the calculation windows highlighted by different market publications.

In this chart, October and November often weigh more than December. This is important because the narrative of a “December explosion” is a bit too simple. In reality, the push often prepares earlier. The post-summer recovery, portfolio repositioning, and a resurgence of institutional activity sometimes create momentum that then spills over into the end of the year.

But the seasonal argument has a flaw, and it is recent. The fourth quarter of 2025 broke the myth of an automatically euphoric Q4. Bitcoin dropped about 23%, far from its historical average. In other words, past models remain useful to read a market, not to impose a destiny on it. When macro, liquidations, and risk aversion dominate, seasonality moves to the background.

The Current Bitcoin Price Does Not Yet Validate the Euphoria

In the short term, the chart remains much cooler than the narrative. As of April 1, 2026, bitcoin trades around 68,331 dollars, with an intraday high at 69,170 dollars. The market rebounds, yes, but it still hasn’t really reclaimed the 70,000 dollar zone. This detail matters because a true sustainable recovery often needs to reconquer simple thresholds before reigniting bullish imagination.

The technical picture therefore remains divided. Bitcoin remains slightly below its 50-day moving average, set at 69,191 dollars, and far from its 200-day moving average, around 91,046 dollars. This does not indicate a broken market, but it indicates even less a market launched into a clean and clear surge.

The 14-day RSI, meanwhile, hovers around 48 according to this same reading. It is a neutral level. There is neither extreme panic nor overwhelming euphoria. In short, markets are betting on a BTC explosion at the end of 2026, but the price, for now, still demands proof. The scenario exists. It simply has not yet begun to assert itself on the chart.