Bitcoin Under Pressure Ahead of Three Major Market-Moving Events This Week

Bitcoin opens a new week above 80,000 dollars after briefly plunging towards 75,000 dollars during the Federal Reserve’s decision. The economic calendar seems lighter, but three appointments stand out: a series of interventions from Fed officials, the first US PMIs for September on Wednesday, and the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday. Last week, the US central bank raised its rates by 25 basis points, for the first time since July 2023. The Bitcoin market must now digest this return of monetary tightening.

Bitcoin emerges from a turbulent week around the Fed

Last week was not quiet. A few hours before the US monetary decision, Bitcoin had slipped below 75,000 dollars. Then the Fed raised its rate range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%.

The FOMC adopted this decision unanimously, by a 12-0 vote. In its statement, the central bank states that US economic activity continues to progress at a solid pace, with resilient consumption and a relatively stable labor market. Inflation, however, remains judged too high.

Bitcoin initially reacted sharply. Coinmarketcap notes a dip around 75,000 dollars before a return above 80,000 dollars at the end of the week.

The rate level is therefore no longer the only question. Investors mainly want to know what the Fed will do next. The September hike is the first since July 2023. Meanwhile, the central bank had cut its rates several times in 2024 and 2025. Wednesday’s move breaks this sequence. The US key rate has now returned to its level of autumn 2025.

Bitcoin thus enters a period where each US data can again fuel the debate on the next FOMC decision.

The Fed will talk a lot this week

No new rate decision this week. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28. However, Federal Reserve officials will be very active.

The calendar followed by markets includes at least eight speeches from Fed officials during the week, according to the schedule reported by CryptoPotato. The Board’s official calendar notably mentions Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson on Tuesday, September 22, then Governor Michael Barr on Wednesday.

For Bitcoin, these speeches matter especially because they come just days after the rate hike. One official may emphasize inflation. Another may talk about the labor market or the effect of oil prices. Bond markets and the dollar then adjust their expectations of monetary policy, sometimes without waiting for the next meeting.

Risk assets generally feel these changes. This link is not mechanical. A firmer Fed statement does not automatically mean that Bitcoin will fall. The reaction also depends on what was already priced in, the dollar, bond yields, and the positioning of traders.

Last week provides a good example. The 25 basis points hike was widely anticipated. Bitcoin experienced volatility around the announcement, then regained some of its losses.

The Fed nevertheless changed an important element: the market no longer only debates when rates might go down. A new hike has now become a credible scenario again.

Wednesday’s PMIs will provide a first picture of the economy

The second appointment comes Wednesday, September 23. S&P Global will publish its first estimates of the US manufacturing and services PMIs for September. These surveys ask companies about their activity, new orders, employment, prices, and their outlook.

The figure of 50 generally serves as a boundary: above it, activity is expanding; below it, it is contracting.

August’s data had been particularly strong. The US composite PMI had reached 56.0, its best level since April 2022. Activity increased for the second consecutive month, with accelerated hiring and improved business confidence.

Wednesday’s figures will indicate if this vigor held in September.

S&P Global itself considers the publication important after recent economic and geopolitical shocks. Its latest global scenario highlights that the flash PMIs on September 23 will show if activity keeps its pace despite high energy prices and a tighter monetary environment.

For Bitcoin, the reading may be less obvious than it seems.

Strong PMIs would be positive for the US economy but could also show that it still bears high rates. Conversely, a sharp slowdown in activity could ease pressure on the Fed, while reviving growth worries.

There is therefore no universal “good number” for Bitcoin.

The market will probably also watch the price components. The Fed has just justified its rate hike by still-high inflation.

Positioning is also different from early in the month. Before the Fed meeting, open positions on the crypto market had already sharply decreased. Cointribune noted a 13.5% drop in open interest between September 3 and 11. Less leverage can change the amplitude of reactions. Not eliminate them.

Trump and Xi meet Thursday in Washington

The third appointment is outside the classic economic calendar.

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, September 24 in Washington, during Xi’s state visit to the United States from September 23 to 25. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the visit, while several American and international sources confirmed the meeting. Discussions will notably focus on trade between the two countries.

Washington and Beijing have been negotiating for several months on tariffs, technological restrictions, and access to certain strategic raw materials. Artificial intelligence, Taiwan, fentanyl, and China’s trade relations with Iran are also among the expected topics.

The summit comes amid a still fragile trade truce. American and Chinese negotiators continued their discussions just before the meeting. The United States seeks progress on exports of rare earth elements, while Beijing wants more clarity on US technological restrictions.

Bitcoin is not directly on the agenda. The link goes through financial markets. A trade détente can alter growth expectations, the dollar, and risk appetite. A new rise in tensions can have the opposite effect. Stock markets, bonds, currencies, and commodities usually react before real economic consequences are measurable.

The summit is therefore followed by investors well beyond the crypto market.

This does not allow predicting Bitcoin’s direction on Thursday. The result of the discussions matters, but the difference between what the market expects and what is actually announced matters just as much.

Bitcoin arrives above $80,000, without a quiet calendar

The week also includes several secondary appointments. Weekly ADP employment data is expected Tuesday. Thursday brings new home sales for August, then durable goods orders on Friday.

None probably, taken alone, has the weight of an FOMC meeting. The whole can nevertheless quickly change rate expectations.

The energy context also remains tense. Brent was still trading around 102 dollars per barrel on Monday, even after a 2% drop. High energy prices remain monitored because they can maintain pressure on inflation.

This is exactly what Bitcoin must absorb after its rise above 80,000 dollars.

The reaction to the Fed has already shown that a single figure is not enough. After the rate hike, BTC did not immediately continue its downward movement. Cointribune noted again on Friday that Bitcoin moved relatively little despite the return of US rate hikes. This week offers three new tests. First the Fed’s words. Then the PMIs on Wednesday. Finally Trump and Xi on Thursday. Bitcoin arrives at these appointments around a level that had already been lost then regained within a few days. 75,000 dollars at the low around the Fed, more than 80,000 dollars by week’s end. Data will now take the lead.