Bitcoin vs Gold: A Ratio at Its Lowest Since 2023

“To the moon,” that’s what bitcoin fans have wanted recently. But for now, the stars belong to another celestial body: gold. The yellow metal is flying over the markets, leaving the crypto-sphere waiting. While crypto traders watch for a signal, traditional investors turn to the ultimate safe haven. Gold shines, BTC waits. And this time, the market silence speaks volumes about the balance of power.

Gold Soars, Crypto Holds Its Breath: When Caution Leads the Dance

Gold, valued at 4,739 dollars two days ago, reasserts itself as the safe haven of uncertain times. Its prices surpass records, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff threats, and a dollar retreat. In China, the People’s Bank continues accumulating, raising its reserves above 74 million ounces.

Major financial institutions no longer hide their optimism: Citigroup forecasts a test at 5,000 dollars, Goldman Sachs calls gold its “strongest long bet,” and ICBC Standard Bank predicts a peak at 7,000 dollars an ounce.

Strategist Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP) summarized it like this: 

Last year was historic, a sort of once-a-century event in precious metals, where silver nearly doubled… Gold rose 60%, so we won’t see such gains again, but 5,400 dollars represents a solid 30% annual increase. This is a secular move, not a speculative peak in a commodity. 

In this cautious atmosphere, the crypto industry keeps a low profile with only 2 billion dollars in one week. Appetite for risk has shifted, and patience becomes the main strategy.

Bitcoin vs Gold: The Wide Gap in Financial Markets

The Bitcoin/gold ratio has collapsed to 18.5 ounces of gold per BTC, its lowest since November 2023. This decline illustrates a reality: capital flows toward stability, leaving the crypto-sphere behind. Yet, history shows these divergences often precede a bullish rotation for Bitcoin.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, reminded on X: 

One hundred years of gold bull markets. If this one resembles the previous ones, the average return from here would be +150%, which would push gold above 12,000 dollars over the next 3 to 10 years. 

But according to Decode, a crypto analyst, this cycle is ending. He estimates the BTC/GOLD ratio is in its fifth corrective wave. It’s not the end, but the end of the end. A phrase that sounds like a warning: after each extreme low comes an explosive catch-up. BTC, even silent, has not said its last word.

Crypto 2026: Bitcoin’s Awakening is Preparing in the Shadows

The crypto market is going through a pivotal phase. Bitcoin, long seen as risky, now seems to be awaiting a second institutional breath. According to several analysts, the shift could come as early as the first quarter of 2026, when flows leave gold to seek a more dynamic alternative.

The erosion of trust in fiat currencies, sovereign debt, and monetary easing policies opens a space that bitcoin could fill. Rare, apolitical, transparent, it ticks all the boxes of a hard asset.

Gold started the dance, but BTC could soon take up the melody. In cyclical markets, history doesn’t always repeat — it rhymes.

Five Key Markers to Understand the Gold-Bitcoin Duel

• Current Bitcoin Price: 89,920 dollars;
• BTC/gold ratio: 18.5 ounces of gold per Bitcoin;
• Gold: historic record at 4,888 dollars an ounce;
• Gold 2026 forecasts: between 5,000 and 7,000 dollars according to Goldman Sachs and ICBC;
• Bitcoin window: capital rotation expected by Q1 2026.

Meanwhile, some are accumulating. Strategy has just added 22,305 bitcoins to its portfolio, quietly strengthening its position. The peak of bitcoin? Not yet. In the crypto-sphere, patience remains the wisest virtue before the next ascent — maybe this time — finally reaches the Moon.