Bitcoin: Why the Clarity Act Law Probably Won't Change Anything

At a time when bitcoin and the entire crypto market are struggling, more and more analysts openly talk about upcoming declines. Some even mention cataclysmic scenarios for 2026. While prices are eroding, political and legislative announcements are multiplying, as if they could patch an already wide-open breach. But should we really believe that the Clarity Act law will be enough to reverse the current trend? Nothing is less certain.

Clarity Act: a crypto regulation without moon promises

One of the most visible supporters of this law remains David Sacks, the “Crypto Czar”. On X, he recently explained having had a constructive exchange with Senators Tim Scott and John Boozman. According to him, they confirmed that a review of the Clarity Act is planned as early as January, marking a concrete step toward the adoption of this awaited legislation in the crypto industry.

The text, supported by several Republican lawmakers, aims to clarify the legal treatment of digital assets in the United States.

But on the market side, enthusiasm is quite different. The famous trader Peter Brandt immediately tempered expectations in a clear statement:

Is this a groundbreaking macroeconomic development? No. It is necessary, of course, but not something that should redefine value. The fact that an asset is regulated, especially an asset that the most hardcore investors never wanted to see regulated, is not a spectacular event. 

Brandt adds that long-time investors have never wanted overly tight regulation, making the impact of the Clarity Act more symbolic than structural. The same view is shared by John Glover (Ledn), for whom “the effect is already priced in.” Most major cryptos, from Ethereum to Solana, show the same inertia: slight increase at the announcement, then calm returns.

The law could improve clarity for institutional investors, but it does not offer an immediate solution to bitcoin volatility.

Bitcoin: a predicted drop amid broken cycles

More worrying than the law are the chart analyses. Peter Brandt, again, states: bitcoin has broken its historic parabolic curve. Simply put, this means that the bullish cycle started after the last halving seems to have reached its ceiling. BTC, which rose to $126,000, has fallen back below $88,000, hinting at a possible collapse toward $25,000, according to his projections.

History gives some credit to this hypothesis: previous bull runs have all been followed by drops of 70 to 80%. Investors ignore this at their own risk. BTC’s progression is not linear and remains linked to powerful cyclical forces. Real adoption stagnates, volumes decrease, and altcoins (XRP, ADA, DOGE) silently suffer from the same ailment: lack of growth drivers beyond the media hype.

Faced with this graphical and historical reality, no regulation—well written or not—can avoid a correction if technical signals are confirmed in the coming months. The Clarity Act? A balm, not a cure.

What regulation doesn’t say: adoption, trust, and use

Legislative texts can reassure crypto market players, but they do not drive prices up. The real question lies elsewhere: can the Clarity Act really trigger mass adoption? Hard to believe. Peter Brandt clearly explains it in an analysis published on OneSafe. According to him, bitcoin’s value will depend above all on its ability to integrate into everyday finance.

It is not the law that will create this dynamic, but the real use people make of BTC.

The crypto market is no longer in its euphoric phase. It is waiting for concrete use cases. And even with clear regulation, capital will not return as long as trust, transparency, and stability are not present. We are probably witnessing a forced maturity of the sector, where only solid projects will survive. Altcoins, NFTs, DeFi: everyone is concerned.

Key points to remember in the crypto fog

• Current bitcoin price: $88,104, down from its peak of $126,000;
• Possible technical floor according to Brandt: $25,000;
• Target date for the Clarity Act: next January, no voting guarantee;
• Historical cycles: each halving has preceded a rise… followed by a collapse;
• Altcoins: still highly correlated with BTC, without autonomous decoupling.

While enthusiasts argue over the real impact of the Clarity Act, some players prefer to do the math. The giant Fidelity sees a floor at $65,000 for bitcoin. A figure that could serve as a beacon in an ocean of uncertainties. It is neither a prophecy nor a buy signal, but a cold, clear marker to navigate an increasingly rough sea.