Bitcoin’s Golden Week Under Pressure As Closing Nears

For nearly ten years, the last week of October has been known to offer bitcoin a bullish surge, to the point of being nicknamed the “golden week”. But this year, despite a promising Uptober month, the momentum is slowing down. The king of cryptos defies expectations, sowing doubt among investors accustomed to now weakened seasonal patterns.

Seasonality put to the test : Bitcoin’s missed appointment ?

While investors turn again to the queen crypto, bitcoin has become accustomed to offering investors a profitable “golden week” in October since 2015.

This seasonal phenomenon is based on an average 7 % rise over the last seven days of the month, observed recurrently. However, this year, data suggests a significant deviation from this trend.

Here are the key points:

• A compromised momentum : Bitcoin briefly touched $116,000 on Tuesday, thus reaching the target set to validate the bullish performance of this golden week. However, it quickly fell back below $113,000, reducing gains to about +4.5 %, which remains below the expected threshold.

• A contested historic regularity : Historically, October is among the three best annual windows alongside February and March. The current underperformance thus fuels investor disappointment, who bet on this sequence to validate a solid bullish scenario.

• A mixed performance : This pullback could call into question the strength of certain trading models based on seasonality and recurring bitcoin cycles. Especially since this year’s Uptober, overall, currently shows almost no monthly progress.

https://twitter.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1983251809343811692

Headwinds… but supportive ?

Beyond the seasonal dimension, some macroeconomic elements could offer the crypto market a last-minute respite. Among them, the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 0.25 %.

The Fed thus continues its monetary easing policy by lowering interest rates again, which would provide a favorable signal for risk assets, including bitcoin. Moreover, markets remain attentive to a potential last-minute trade deal between the United States and China, which could avert the threat of new tariffs.

From a technical analysis perspective, signals are not entirely negative. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indeed shows a hidden bullish divergence on hourly timeframes, an indicator often interpreted as a precursor of a short-term rebound.

These elements, although subtle, indicate that the downward movement of recent days might lack conviction, and bullish investors could still regain control approaching the monthly close.

Bitcoin seasonality, which I have been following all year, is still tracking the 30th percentile. This implies a price of $162,000 in December. pic.twitter.com/oETxhuvLBz

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 20, 2025

In this uncertain configuration, the implications go beyond the simple week performance. If bitcoin fails to validate its golden week, it could weaken the confidence of actors who base their strategies on cyclical patterns. However, Timothy Peterson remains optimistic in the longer term, recalling that according to his research based on the seasonality of bullish cycles, a target of $150,000, or even $160,000 remains conceivable by December.