Bitcoin's Rally Faces Resistance Near $100K

As the symbolic threshold of $100,000 approaches, bitcoin enters a zone of turbulence. Behind the spectacular rise, long-term holders are recording unrealized gains of nearly 350 %, a level historically associated with massive profit-taking. This critical signal comes as the market remains vulnerable, slowed by persistent technical tensions and demand struggling to keep pace with potential supply.

Record unrealized gains among long-term holders : a critical threshold reached

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analysis firm Glassnode points out a critical threshold for the market: Long-Term Holders (LTH) of bitcoin, those investors who have held their BTC for more than six months, are collectively approaching an unrealized profit margin of 350 %.

This level, historically associated with waves of profit-taking, could again play a decisive role.

Glassnode emphasizes :

Historically speaking, the cohort of long-term holders increases its selling pressure when the average member holds an unrealized profit margin of +350 %.

This threshold coincides precisely with a spot price estimated at $99,900, very close to the psychological barrier of $100,000.

Glassnode also notes that, so far, these investors are resisting the temptation to sell. However, some indicators suggest that a shift could be imminent. The analysis highlights :

• Long-term holders are sitting on unrealized profits of nearly 350 %, corresponding to selling levels observed during previous bullish peaks ;
• The $99,900 level represents the zone where the average LTH would reach this breakeven point, making it a historic pressure point ;
• “We can anticipate an increase in selling pressure as the market approaches this zone,” warns Glassnode, mentioning the need for “substantial” buying demand to sustain momentum.

In other words, if buyers do not show up to absorb this potential supply, the market could experience a redistribution phase, with immediate implications for the price. Previous cycles have shown that this type of configuration often precedes short- or medium-term corrections.

Technical vulnerabilities and market imbalances : the risk of a sudden reversal

Beyond the psychological factors linked to long-term holders’ profits, several technical indicators suggest that the current momentum could falter.

The trader TheKingfisher has reported a major imbalance in order books. According to him, a “massive wall of long liquidations” is stacked below $91,000, while short positions above $96,600 are almost non-existent.

He commented on May 1st on the X platform (formerly Twitter): “The enormous imbalance suggests a strong downward magnet. The risk to long positions is high at these levels. The bullish potential seems low for now.”

This vulnerability is all the more notable as bitcoin has barely crossed technically critical levels, such as the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) and the average realized price of short-term holders (STH).

Glassnode indicates that these thresholds have just been surpassed but remain precarious. These are levels that must be crossed and maintained to allow further price appreciation. A rejection could bring the price into a bearish zone and plunge many investors into significant unrealized losses.

The accumulation of technical tensions combined with the prospect of massive selling by LTH paints an uncertain scenario for the coming weeks. If bitcoin manages to stabilize above $100,000, it would be a remarkable sign of strength. However, in the absence of sufficient demand influx, downward pressure could quickly regain control. The next battle will therefore be at the crossroads of these psychological, technical, and behavioral thresholds.