Bitwise Raises Bitcoin Price Target To $1.6 Million

Bitwise estimates that bitcoin could reach 1.6 million dollars by 2036, with an annualized return of 34.3%. Behind this spectacular target, the scenario depends less on institutional purchases than on BTC’s ability to capture a much larger share of the global value reserve market.

The 1.6 Million Dollar Mark Mainly Depends on a Transfer from Gold

Bitwise raises its previous target of 1.3 million dollars set for 2035. The manager now starts from a bitcoin valued at 83,557 dollars as of September 30, 2026, applying an average annual growth rate of 34.3% over ten years.

This projection does not rely on profits or cash flows, since bitcoin does not generate any. Bitwise rather estimates the future size of several markets in which BTC could take shares, before converting the resulting value into price per unit.

Its central scenario notably includes the following assumptions :

• The global value reserve market would reach 110 trillion dollars ;
• Bitcoin would capture 25% of it by 2036 ;
• Institutional assets would represent about 303 trillion dollars ;
• Professional investors would allocate 1% to BTC ;
• Other outlets would include national reserves, corporate treasuries, and international transfers.

The value reserve is by far the most important assumption. A 25% share of a 110 trillion dollar market would represent about 27.5 trillion dollars. By itself, this component would provide nearly 82% of the total valuation needed to reach 1.6 million dollars per bitcoin.

The model therefore assumes that BTC will multiply its current share of this market, estimated by Bitwise at just over 5, by five times. This conquest should also occur while gold still attracts most of the capital seeking protection against inflation and currency depreciation.

An Institutional Inflow of 1% into Bitcoin Is Not Enough to Support the Scenario

Bitwise strongly emphasizes professional investors. According to estimates cited in its report, these actors currently control about 147 trillion dollars. An allocation between 1% and 5% would generate between 1.5 and 7.4 trillion dollars of demand.

This amount seems considerable compared to the roughly 14 billion dollars of new bitcoins created annually by mining. Moreover, 20.1 million BTC, or 95.7% of the 21 million limit, would already be in circulation. Significant demand would therefore encounter limited new supply.

However, the central scenario only uses the lower end of the institutional range, that is, a 1% allocation. This would bring about 3 trillion dollars in 2036, less than 10% of the projected valuation. The 5% assumption belongs more to the bullish scenario, which places bitcoin at 3.67 million dollars.

The target of 1.6 million cannot therefore be summarized by the arrival of institutions. It mainly requires investors to progressively consider bitcoin as a major alternative to gold and other assets used to preserve wealth.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, states:

The manager is more optimistic about bitcoin today than last year.

He cites regulatory progress, demand for rare assets, and a less deep correction than in previous cycles.

An Optimistic Forecast Despite Ten Years of High Volatility

Bitwise forecasts an average annual volatility of 27.8% until 2036, compared to 32.9% in its previous report. This decline would reflect progressive maturation but would still leave bitcoin much more unstable than most traditional assets.

The central scenario does not imply a steady 34.3% growth every year. Several sharp corrections could occur while maintaining this average over ten years. BTC actually lost about 53% between its record above 126,000 dollars in October 2025 and its low below 59,000 dollars in June 2026.

Bitwise considers this decline encouraging because it remains below the 86%, 84%, and 77% drops observed after the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021. However, this comparison does not guarantee that future cycles will continue to ease.

The report also identifies several threats: regulatory setbacks, advances in quantum computing, and accelerated mathematical breakthroughs powered by artificial intelligence. Lower institutional demand or a lasting preference for gold would also strongly reduce the value obtained by the model.

Bitwise’s bearish scenario illustrates this sensitivity. With only 2.5% of the value reserve market and no institutional allocation, bitcoin would reach 130,686 dollars in 2036. The gap with the 1.6 million dollar target shows that the published goal is primarily a bet on adoption, not a guaranteed trajectory.