Brian Armstrong Keeps His $400,000 Bitcoin Target

For Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, bitcoin at $400,000 by 2030 remains a reasonable target. However, to reach it from its current price, BTC would have to multiply by more than five.

Bitcoin should gain more than 400% by 2030

During an interview with CNBC on September 10, Brian Armstrong reaffirmed his projection. Asked about the possibility of bitcoin nearing $400,000 before 2030, he responded that he still considers this target realistic.

Currently, BTC trades around $77,000. It remains nearly 39% below its record of $126,198 reached in October 2025.

Many data points allow measuring the scope of the forecast :

• Bitcoin should increase by about 420% from $77,000 ;
• Its price should multiply by nearly 5.2 ;
• The target would surpass the October 2025 record by 217% ;
• Its market capitalization would approach $8 trillion with 20 million BTC in circulation.

Brian Armstrong in the interview aired by CNBC emphasized: “I think it’s a reasonable target by 2030”. Such a statement is a personal opinion and not an official Coinbase projection.

The executive did not detail a market capitalization model likely to precisely justify the $400,000. This calculation mainly assumes that institutional and retail demand will continue to grow faster than the available supply.

Brian Armstrong believes the floor has already passed

First, Coinbase’s CEO’s optimism is based on bitcoin’s historical cycles. These usually last about four years and alternate phases of euphoria, correction, then recovery before the next halving reduces mining rewards.

He states: “I personally think we have already seen the bitcoin floor during this cycle.” BTC had fallen to $57,717 on July 1 before rebounding to about $79,000 in September, according to compiled information.

Also, Armstrong notes that bear markets usually last about one year. Actually, the market just passed this phase since its October 2025 peak. However, the small number of completed cycles prevents this from becoming a reliable statistical rule.

The next halving, expected around April 2028, also supports his forecast. This event will halve the amount of new bitcoins awarded to mining companies. Armstrong therefore expects investors to anticipate this supply reduction over the next two years.

US regulation would also play a role. Thus, the executive mainly watches the CLARITY Act and future rules applicable to this sector. Legal clarification would ease the arrival of new capital, whereas political failure could delay this scenario.

BTC must first recover $81,500

Before considering $400,000, bitcoin must confirm its exit from the bear market. Its 50-week moving average was around $81,473 at the beginning of this month. The price had not yet managed to close sustainably above this level.

In four of the five previous bear markets, crossing this average confirmed that the floor had already been reached. A weekly close above this threshold would therefore strengthen Brian Armstrong’s analysis, according to a Galaxy Research study.

A first positive signal came from the rebound in August. During that month, bitcoin gained 25.4%, while US ETFs collected $3.4 billion. However, part of this movement came from the covering of short positions and momentum-related acquisitions. Such flows can disappear quickly.

The halving effect could also diminish as ETFs and corporate treasuries grow in importance. Therefore, interest rates, global liquidity, and regulatory decisions may weigh more heavily on the market.

The levels of $81,500 and $126,198 therefore represent the first verifiable steps. Without sustainable breakthroughs, bitcoin at $400,000 will remain a long-term scenario rather than a confirmed trajectory.