Can Bitcoin Still End 2025 in Positive Territory?
Many crypto analysts agree on one point: bitcoin must achieve a 6.24% increase to avoid an annual close in the red. Currently trading around $87,000 to $90,000, the end of the year looks tense for the flagship crypto.
In brief
- Bitcoin must climb 6.24% to avoid a historic post-halving red annual close.
- The break of its moving average and macro uncertainty hinder any significant rebound before 2026.
Bitcoin faces a critical threshold for 2025
The symbolic threshold of $93,374 divides analysts. According to some, a 6.24% increase in bitcoin would be enough to paint the annual candle green. However, the crypto market remains unstable after an ATH above $125,000 in October, followed by a 30% drop in November.
Bitcoin even touched a low of $80,000 according to charts, thus breaking its major technical support: the 365-day moving average. This structural break, never seen so clearly since 2023, feeds the fear of a lasting reversal.
According to analyst Nic Puckrin, bitcoin has three days to avoid a red close. If it fails, it could break a post-halving performance cycle that has remained intact for over a decade. Enough to increase fear among BTC hodlers.
Macroeconomics: The Fed slows bitcoin’s momentum
The Fed rate cut plays a role in the partial BTC rebound in 2025. We refer to three successive 25 basis point cuts that temporarily revived risk appetite.
The intervention of Jerome Powell in December unfortunately cast doubt. Result: only 18.8% of crypto investors anticipate another interest rate cut in January.
This uncertainty weighs on bitcoin’s momentum. The absence of inflows could indeed prevent any short-term bitcoin increase. The correlation with monetary policies therefore remains strong.
Except for an express rebound, bitcoin could thus end the year below its historical standards. The market wonders: a simple bullish pause or the start of a new bearish cycle? The answer may come as early as January.
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My name is Ariela, and I am 31 years old. I have been working in the field of web writing for 7 years now. I only discovered trading and cryptocurrency a few years ago, but it is a universe that greatly interests me. The topics covered on the platform allow me to learn more. A singer in my spare time, I also cultivate a great passion for music and reading (and animals!)
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.