Can History Repeat ? Bitcoin Might Bounce Back In 2026

Bitcoin ended 2025 down 6.36 %. A modest performance, but enough to revive a statistical pattern observed for nearly a decade. After every negative year, the crypto has systematically rebounded. As 2026 begins, this statistical regularity intrigues. Can past data still guide the market’s future?

An historical pattern that catches investors’ attention

Closing 2025 with a -6.36 % performance, Bitcoin posted its fourth negative year since 2014.

A modest decline at first glance, but rare enough to attract increased attention from analysts. Jesse Myers, head of Bitcoin strategy at Smarter Web Company, points out that “annual declines have historically been followed by some of Bitcoin’s strongest rebounds”.

He cites performances of +35 % in 2015 after 2014’s drop, +95 % in 2019 after 2018’s, and +156 % in 2023 following 2022’s decline. According to him, “these post-drop rebounds show an average close to 95 %, which can be rounded to 100 % for projections”.

This statistical pattern, although based on limited history, today fuels strong expectations for 2026. It rests on a recurring market sequence that investors have learned to identify. Here are the historical data highlighted by Jesse Myers :

• 2014 : down year followed by a +35 % rebound in 2015 ;
• 2018 : bear market followed by +95 % in 2019 ;
• 2022 : sharp drop offset by +156 % in 2023 ;
• 2025 : closes at -6.36 %, triggering analysts’ attention.

These figures help forge a consensus that Bitcoin could again display spectacular performance this year. However, while the repetition of this pattern continues to shape expectations for 2026, it underscores that past performance is not a guarantee for the future.

Advanced modeling and mixed market signals

Beyond historical analysis, some researchers rely on more complex quantitative models to refine 2026 outlooks.

This is the case for Sminston With, crypto analyst and researcher, who developed the model called Bitcoin Decay Channel. Based on quantile regression applied to historical price data, this model considers volatility reduction as Bitcoin matures as an asset.

According to With, this model projects a BTC valuation range “between $200,000 and $300,000 for 2026”, provided liquidity conditions become more favorable. He specifies that “the model’s oscillator remains near 20%”, a level historically corresponding to an early expansion phase in the market.

However, current momentum indicators tell a more nuanced story. According to data provided by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s average 30-day return on Binance caps at 0.0016, reflecting very weak momentum.

Volatility remains high (0.018), and the Sharpe-like ratio, a risk-adjusted performance indicator, stagnates around 0.09—a level near neutrality. Historically, such levels signal a market transition phase where gross performance fails to compensate for the risk level taken. This kind of configuration “generally aligns with transitional phases, where risk-adjusted returns deteriorate, even if the overall trend remains intact”.

If the observed pattern repeats, Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000, or even much more by year-end. However, between technical projections and macroeconomic uncertainties, the market remains unpredictable.