Cardano: After a Strong September, October Looks More Uncertain

Cardano ended September with an increase of about 23%, but some large crypto investors are beginning to lighten their positions. Since September 20, whales have reportedly sold nearly 90 million ADA, about 22.5 million dollars. At the same time, open interest on futures contracts has declined by 9%. After the rally, the market is therefore much more cautious.

Crypto whales start selling their ADA

The movement concerns about 90 million ADA sold since September 20. At the price levels noted during these transactions, this represents approximately 22.5 million dollars. Cardano had already experienced a similar phenomenon this summer. In August, Cointribune observed a reduction in the exposure of large holders after a previous ADA rebound.

This time, sales come after a particularly strong month. ADA gained around 23% in September before losing part of that gain during the last days of the month.

Analyst Ali Martinez sees these sales as one of the short-term elements to watch. A TD Sequential sell signal also appeared on the daily chart on September 26. ADA then declined by about 10%.

The indicator does not automatically signal a new drop, of course. It mainly shows that the September rally now faces more profit-taking. For whales, the timing is clear: they sell after the rise.

Interest in Cardano futures declines by 9%

The derivatives market tells a fairly similar story. ADA futures open interest dropped from about 1.99 billion dollars to 1.81 billion in one week. The decline amounts to 9%.

Open interest corresponds to the value of futures contracts still open. When it decreases, some traders close their positions rather than open new ones.

Here, nearly 180 million dollars of exposure disappeared. This movement contrasts with what was observed a few months earlier. In February, large wallets had accumulated 819 million ADA over six months despite a weak crypto market.

Since then, September has offered a significant rebound. The decline in open interest does not erase this performance. It simply shows that traders using leverage become less aggressive after several weeks of gains.

There is also a zone around 0.24 dollar mentioned in the cited technical analysis. A break of this level could open the way toward 0.21 dollar, while a recovery would again look toward 0.28 dollar. These are technical levels, not guaranteed targets.

Cardano nonetheless comes out of a strong crypto month

Whale sales come in a very different context than at the beginning of the year. ADA comes out of a September with an increase of about 23%. The Cardano network continues to evolve its infrastructure and governance in parallel. This summer, Cardano notably carried out its first fully on-chain governed hard fork, an important step for the protocol’s operation.

The market, however, mainly watches short-term flows. 90 million ADA left the tracked wallets since September 20. Open interest lost 9%. A technical sell signal appeared on September 26.

Three data points coming right after a 23% rally. This is not enough to announce a lasting reversal of Cardano. Whales may simply be taking profits after the rise, while the reduction in leverage may also clean the market. For now, the situation remains simpler. September was very favorable to ADA. The last days were much less so.