Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Driven By Macro Shift 

Could bitcoin make a notable comeback by the end of the year ? As markets scrutinize Federal Reserve decisions, the flagship crypto benefits from a more favorable macroeconomic environment. The improvement in global liquidity and the prospect of monetary easing fuel hopes for a rebound in December. Behind this emerging optimism, investors remain on alert: a single misstep by the Fed could question everything.

A recovery supported by macroeconomic fundamentals

Coinbase Institutional estimates that the combination of an improvement in global liquidity and rising expectations of interest rate cuts could support a crypto market recovery during this month.

In a report released Friday, the platform writes : “we believe that cryptos could be positioned to rebound in December as liquidity improves, Fed rate cut probabilities reach 92%, and macro headwinds become favorable“.

This outlook is notably based on the M2 custom index developed by Coinbase, which measures the evolution of the global fiat money supply. For the platform’s analysts, this indicator reveals a trend reversal after several months of weakness.

This potential year-end rebound is based on a sequence of macroeconomic signals that Coinbase considers convergent. Here are the key elements highlighted in the report :

• A notable improvement in global liquidity, measured by their internal indicator based on the M2 money supply ;
• A high probability (92 % as of December 4) of monetary easing by the Fed, according to markets ;
• Expectations of an end to the monetary tightening cycle, likely to revive appetite for risky assets such as bitcoin.

However, enthusiasm remains limited. Coinbase observes that the market is still dominated by fear, with a marked absence of incoming capital, both from institutions and individuals.

Volumes on crypto ETFs remain low, and the entire market seems suspended to an as yet uncertain trigger, just days before a highly anticipated monetary decision in the United States.

A fragile recovery under threat from the Fed and political uncertainties

Beyond economic indicators, the central role of the US Federal Reserve in bitcoin’s trajectory is pointed out by several analysts.

Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, believes that Jerome Powell’s press conference, scheduled for December 10 after the FOMC meeting, could have a decisive impact on the market. He explains: “if the Fed cuts rates on December 10, also ending quantitative tightening (QT), there would be little left to prevent a Christmas rally for Bitcoin, except in the event of a major geopolitical shock“.

However, Puckrin tempers this outlook by stressing that “every word from Jerome Powell will be scrutinized for clues about 2026 monetary policy, and an overly restrictive speech could halt the rally“.

This caution is reinforced by the November precedent, during which bitcoin came under downward pressure following Powell’s remarks. Chris Kim, CEO of Axis, an on-chain quantitative trading fund, confirms this interpretation: “the main market driver currently is macro. We lean towards a recovery, especially since the market has already retested the $80,000 zone and the 100-week moving average“.

Added to this are some technical and structural signals deemed encouraging, such as Vanguard’s recent authorization to trade ETFs. Another factor could also reshape the monetary landscape in the medium term: rumors of a possible appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed chair in 2026, an economist known for his more accommodative positions.