Crypto: JPMorgan Chase Sees a 2026 Rebound Driven by Institutional Flows

Despite recent volatility and bitcoin falling below its production cost, the American investment bank maintains an optimistic outlook for crypto assets. Institutional flows are expected, according to it, to revive the market this year, provided the regulatory framework clears up. Will these expected flows be enough to reverse the trend?

Institutional Investors, New Pillars of the Crypto Market

JPMorgan has just released its analysis on the future of cryptos. The team of analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou shows cautious optimism for 2026. Their central thesis is based on a recovery of capital flows, but not just any: those of institutional investors.

“We are positive in crypto markets for 2026 as we expect a further rise in the digital asset flow but more led by institutional investors“, says the report published Monday.

This stance stands out in the current bearish climate. Bitcoin trades around $67,000, well below the estimated production cost of $77,000. Yet, the bank sees it more as an opportunity than a danger.

One detail changes the game: institutional interest holds up much better than retail engagement during this correction. Major financial players have not fled, unlike previous bear cycles. This resilience is a strong signal for what’s ahead.

The recent context bears the marks of intense capitulation. The company K33 identified conditions of extreme panic during the drop to $60,000 in early February. The daily RSI dropped to 15.9, its sixth most extreme oversold level since 2015. These technical indicators suggest the bottom has been reached.

A Technical Floor and a Favorable Regulatory Context

Miner dynamics play a crucial role in JPMorgan’s analysis. Bitcoin’s production cost has dropped significantly in recent weeks following the capitulation of the least profitable operators. High-cost miners throw in the towel, which mechanically lowers the overall production cost.

The bank is betting on a self-regulation phenomenon. When activity remains sustainably below the break-even point, inefficient players leave the market. The network emerges more resilient, supported by better-capitalized operators. This “natural selection” strengthens fundamentals in the medium term.

The equation also changes relative to gold. Since October, the precious metal has largely outperformed bitcoin. However, its volatility has exploded at the same time. For JPMorgan, this situation progressively makes BTC more attractive as an alternative store of value. Bitcoin regains its relative appeal.

The regulatory factor remains the keystone. Indeed, the bank anticipates major legislative progress in the United States in 2026. The potential adoption of the Clarity Act could finally bring the clarity long awaited by institutional players. This legal certainty represents the missing link to unlock billions of dollars kept on the sidelines.

JPMorgan outlines a scenario where traditional players take over. Retail investors and specialized funds will no longer be enough to carry the next bullish wave. This shift would mark a historic turning point for the crypto industry. It remains to be seen whether Wall Street is right in this bet on institutions.