Crypto: XRP at Risk of Another 10% Correction

While the crypto market goes through a wait-and-see phase, XRP wavers on a critical threshold. Caught between alarming technical signals and persistent regulatory uncertainty, Ripple’s asset could suffer a drop of 8 to 10%. A tension zone is setting in, where every indicator could tip market sentiment. For investors, the stake is no longer just the price but the psychological trajectory of an iconic asset.

Technical Signals of an Imminent Retreat

Technical indicators point to a critical zone for XRP, as the asset has just joined the Hashdex Nasdaq ETF. Indeed, the asset currently holds around the $2.75 threshold, but analysts warn of a risk of “an 8 to 10% drop toward the $2.50 zone”, if selling pressure continues.

This drop would target a Fair Value Gap (FVG), that is, a valuation void zone that often acts as a liquidity magnet, especially when overlapping key technical levels.

In this specific case, this FVG also overlaps Fibonacci retracement levels 0.50–0.618, reinforcing its relevance in the market structure.

Here are the technical elements revealed by this configuration:

• A fragile current support: XRP trades near the $2.75 support, a level already tested multiple times;

• The identified bearish target: a correction toward $2.45-$2.50 would coincide with a classic technical retracement, coupled with a return to an FVG zone;

• A concentration of buyers: according to Glassnode, a high density of holders is positioned in the $2.45-$2.55 zone, which could trigger a defensive rebound if this threshold is reached.

Although these signals converge toward a short-term pullback scenario, the overall data also suggests that this possible drop could serve as a springboard for a recovery if buyers manage to defend the $2.50 area. However, in the absence of an immediate catalyst, momentum remains dominated by sellers in this adjustment phase.

A Liquidity Compression and Expectations Around ETFs

Beyond technical indicators alone, structural signals announce a potential regime change in market behavior. The firm Sistine Research points out that XRP is currently going through its third compression phase since November 2024, characterized by a gradual reduction of price gaps and a concentration of liquidity.

Expecting a large expansionary move from XRP soon (within months).

As the price action compresses, so does the orderbook, with most liquidity compressing into a tighter and tighter range.

This results in very large gaps in liquidity.

XRP is on its 3rd compression since the… pic.twitter.com/hjRVzeK8wc

— Sistine Research (@sistineresearch) September 24, 2025

According to the analysis, this compression relies on “three consecutively higher price points,” indicating extreme order book tightening. Such configurations have historically preceded violent price movements, both upward and downward.

On the market flow front, analyst Pelin Ay has noted that the 90-day CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) still shows seller dominance, despite “a brief surge of buyers”.

This imbalance reveals that bullish investors have not yet regained momentum control, making any recovery scenario conditional on a decisive volume reversal. To this tension adds a speculative dimension around crypto ETFs currently under approval.

While the REX/Osprey XRP ETF experienced a notable launch with nearly $38 million in volume on its first day, market optimism may already be partially priced in.

The much-anticipated decision from Franklin Templeton on its XRP ETF, postponed to November 14, could be a pivotal moment. Until then, the current market structure remains vulnerable to a sudden decompression move. If there is a positive reaction to regulatory announcements, a break of XRP price above $2.90 could invalidate the ongoing bearish scenario.