CryptoQuant Warns Of Structural Decline In Bitcoin

Bitcoin has just crossed a critical threshold that changes the game. According to CryptoQuant, the break of its 365-day moving average is no longer a mere technical signal : it marks the clear entry into a new bearish cycle. This slide occurs in a context of institutional demand withdrawal and degraded on-chain signals. The bullish momentum now seems behind, replaced by a market dynamic structured around caution, watchfulness… and the risk of prolonged decline.

The market confirms its entry into a prolonged bearish phase

On February 5, CryptoQuant analysts revealed a major technical signal: Bitcoin’s break of its 365-day moving average, a threshold considered critical to judge long-term trend.

This break occurred for the first time since March 2022, specifies the report. Since this downward crossing, the Bitcoin price has dropped about 23 % over 83 days, a faster and steeper fall than that observed during the 2022 bearish phase. For CryptoQuant, this break leaves little room for doubt: the market has shifted into a foundational bearish dynamic.

On-chain data support this interpretation revealing a marked degradation of key indicators :

• The “Bull Market” index at zero : CryptoQuant’s indicator, supposed to reflect buying pressure, shows a total absence of bullish momentum ;

• Negative growth of the stablecoin supply : this contraction suggests a fall in liquidity available to support the crypto market ;

• Volume and investor interest in decline : the lack of inflows confirms a loss of short-term appeal for Bitcoin ;

• The absence of inverse capitulation signals : no indicator suggests a significant appetite resurgence or short-term stabilization.

Bitcoin is now in a structurally bearish setup. Indeed, both traders and institutions face a new reality: the absence of technical or fundamental support calls for caution, even watchfulness.

The withdrawal of institutional buyers increases the pressure

While technical signals are already enough to worry investors, the attitude of institutional players strengthens the thesis of a lasting reversal. According to the report, spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had supported the market rise during the previous year, have stopped accumulating.

CryptoQuant specifies that these vehicles have stopped buying and have even started selling, creating a net demand gap compared to 2025. The change is especially visible on the American side. Thus, the Coinbase premium remains negative, suggesting that institutional buyers based in the United States no longer actively support prices.

This disinterest combines with an increasing correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets. The monetary context, dominated by high rates and a cautious Federal Reserve policy, weighs on risky assets. Crypto no longer benefits from the status of alternative safe-haven asset it had embodied during certain market phases. This situation calls into question some strategic assumptions about the decorrelation between cryptos and stock indices.

Realized losses on Bitcoin in 24 hours are colossal, intensifying a climate already weakened by alarming technical signals. In a market now devoid of institutional support, the bearish trend seems to settle in. The coming weeks will be decisive to determine if a recovery is possible or if a deeper drop awaits investors.