Demand Collapse Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure

After a 2024 marked by the influx of ETFs and institutional enthusiasm, signs of fatigue are multiplying. According to CryptoQuant, demand has significantly contracted since October, confirming the entry into a bearish phase. Between the outflow of incoming flows, breaking of technical supports, and investor hesitation, the market shows clear signs of tipping. A turning point that analysts are watching closely as the cycle could change pace.

A drop in Bitcoin demand : indicators turn red

According to CryptoQuant, the apparent demand for Bitcoin has significantly slowed since the beginning of the fourth quarter of the year, while the crypto queen collapses after a false hope of rebound.

“Demand growth has fallen below trend since early October,” state the analysts. They specify that this dynamic marks the end of a sustained bullish cycle. This observation suggests that “the majority of incremental demand in this cycle has already been realized, thereby removing a key pillar of price support.”

The analysis also identifies three major waves that paced this bullish cycle: a first in January 2024 with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, a second driven by the US presidential election results, and a third related to speculation around listed companies accumulating BTC in their treasury.

This slowdown in momentum is confirmed by several objective indicators :

• Institutional investor disengagement : about 24,000 BTC were withdrawn from ETFs during this fourth quarter, according to CryptoQuant. This behavior is diametrically opposed to that observed at the same period in 2024, marked by net inflows ;

• A falling funding rate : the funding rates of perpetual futures contracts have dropped to their lowest level since December 2023, reflecting a clear weakening of leveraged speculative appetite ;

• A major technical break : Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average, currently around $98,172, which constitutes a “critical dynamic support level.”

Taken together, these on-chain data reinforce the hypothesis of a cycle reversal and place investors facing a market now deprived of its fundamental drivers.

Psychological and macroeconomic dynamics to watch

While technical and behavioral signals show clear investor disengagement, medium-term prospects remain mixed.

Some analysts still anticipate a price recovery in 2026, especially if the US Federal Reserve eases monetary policy. This hypothesis is based on the possibility of a rate cut, which would favor risk assets like cryptos. However, for now, the consensus remains cautious. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, only 22.1% of investors expect a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for January 2026.

On the political front, pressure is also mounting. President Donald Trump reportedly tried to pressure Jerome Powell by threatening dismissal to accelerate rate cuts before his term expires in May 2026. Such instability could paradoxically increase uncertainty in the markets.

As for the overall investor sentiment, it remains clearly pessimistic. The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index firmly remains in the fear zone. A mixed situation that historically sometimes precedes the most unexpected rebounds, but nothing guarantees such a scenario for now.

The slowdown in demand and unfavorable technical signals now weigh on the bitcoin price, which enters a phase of uncertainty. If the market confirms this bearish momentum, the coming months could redefine the current cycle’s balances and require a more cautious reading of the short-term outlook.