Derivatives Drop Triggers Caution Among Bitcoin Investors

While the asset oscillates around 87,000 dollars, the derivatives markets send a clear signal: open interest on Bitcoin futures contracts has dropped to its lowest level in eight months. This decline marks a net disengagement from leveraged positions, revealing a tactical withdrawal of speculative capital, in a context where the bullish momentum seems to be fading without an immediate catalyst.

Interest drops to its lowest in eight months

Last Friday, the crypto derivatives market, after its explosion during this year, experienced a marked decline: the aggregated open interest on Bitcoin futures fell to 42 billion dollars, down from 47 billion two weeks earlier, thus reaching its lowest level in eight months.

This sudden drop was catalyzed by a clear rejection of BTC below 89,000 dollars, triggering a wave of liquidations on the most speculative positions. Thus, more than 260 million dollars of leveraged positions were liquidated in a single session, causing a sharp reduction in overall exposure to the futures market.

Alongside this correction on derivatives, a series of other signals have fueled the market participants’ concerns. Here are the key points to remember :

• Net outflows of 825 million dollars on Bitcoin spot ETFs, recorded over a five-day period ;

• This amount represents less than 1 % of the 116 billion dollars under management but marks a break from the bullish trend observed since October ;

• The global macroeconomic context remains tense, with precious metals (gold, silver) soaring to new highs ;

• The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.12 %, its lowest level in three weeks, indicating a move towards so-called “safe” assets ;

• Finally, contradictory policy decisions in the United States, such as the suspension of tariffs on Chinese semiconductors until 2027.

In such an environment, bitcoin, still largely considered a risky asset by traditional investors, seems to have lost some of its immediate speculative appeal.

The decline in leverage is therefore interpreted not as a bearish bet, but rather as a cautious retreat phase, awaiting clearer signals.

Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals resist panic

Despite the drop in open interest on futures and the retreat observed in ETFs, some technical indicators call for caution in the bearish interpretation.

The three-month Bitcoin futures basis rate, used to gauge institutional investor sentiment, remained stable at 5 % on Friday, a level considered neutral. Under normal conditions, Bitcoin futures trade with an annualized premium of 5 to 10 %. This rate had fallen below 4 % on December 18, when BTC traded below 85,000 dollars, making its current stability all the more notable.

However, the 30-day Bitcoin options skew curve, measuring the difference between put and call option prices, remains below the 6 % threshold, a level beyond which fear usually dominates the market.

In short, options market participants are not overpaying for puts, signaling that bearish expectations are moderate. While some institutional actors are reducing their direct exposure, data from derivatives point to a more cautious positioning rather than outright pessimism. This contrast between an apparent capital withdrawal and resilience of technical indicators fuels a form of uncertainty about the future market direction.

A bitcoin return towards 85,000 dollars reinforces the idea of a market in a consolidation phase, marked by increased caution. Without an immediate catalyst, investors are reevaluating their positions, in a context where speculative momentum is fading and technical signals suggest a new temporary balance around major psychological levels.