Despite Losses, Strategy’s S&P 500 Entry In Sight

While bitcoin falters, a company makes the opposite bet. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of BTC, continues to buy massively in the midst of turmoil, where others flee. Its radical strategy, often criticized, could nevertheless open the doors of the very selective S&P 500 as early as December. A possibility that, until recently, was still financial science fiction. This scenario crystallizes a major shift between institutional finance and cryptos.

Strategy absorbs the shock

The latest correction in the crypto market, marked by a significant drop in the bitcoin price, did not shake Strategy’s determination.

Although its stock lost more than half of its value, dropping from 474 dollars to about 207 dollars, the company continues to increase its BTC reserves. On Monday, it announced the purchase of 8,178 additional bitcoins for 835 million dollars, well beyond its usual monthly accumulation pace.

Asked about its ability to absorb extreme market fluctuations, Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, stated : “the company is designed to withstand an 80 to 90 % drop and keep operating”.

In a note published Wednesday, Matrixport confirms this operational strength and rules out any imminent forced liquidation risk. The report specifies that current pressure mainly concerns investors who acquired shares at an inflated net asset value (NAV), who are now suffering the effects of its compression. Several indicators confirm this situation :

• The stock price was cut by more than half, without causing massive disengagement from the Bitcoin strategy ;

• The latest BTC purchase by Strategy is the largest in several months, in a bearish market context ;

• The company has demonstrated an ability to withstand extreme losses, according to its own executives ;

• Matrixport regards the liquidation risk as irrelevant in the short term, stressing instead its impact on recent shareholders ;

• Meanwhile, several other crypto treasury companies, notably Bitmine, Metaplanet, Upexi, and DeFi Development Corp, see their mNAV ratio fall below the critical threshold of 1, compromising their ability to issue new shares to raise funds.

Strategy therefore appears, at this stage, as a unique case in the Bitcoin treasury ecosystem. The company is resilient, structured, and still active despite market pressures.

Towards the S&P 500 : a legitimization of the Bitcoin model ?

Despite market turbulence and a declining market capitalization, the company Strategy still appears on track to join the S&P 500 index.

According to an analysis note from Matrixport, this inclusion could take place as early as December. Optimism is shared by the company 10X Research, which assesses the probability of this event at 70 %, as indicated at the end of October. Analysts emphasize that despite the price correction, Strategy’s stock now appears “relatively undervalued compared to bitcoin’s evolution”, which strengthens its relevance in the stock market landscape.

Moreover, Strategy received a “B -“ rating from S&P Global Ratings, a first for a company mostly based on Bitcoin treasury. While this rating remains in the speculative category of “high-yield bonds”, it sets an unprecedented precedent in the evaluation of companies with strong crypto exposure.

For the first time, a Bitcoin-focused company is taken into account by classic rating standards, which could pave the way for other similar applications. However, this normalization remains fragile, as analysts stress the need for Strategy to maintain an mNAV ratio above 1 to continue raising funds, a condition becoming increasingly difficult for its competitors to meet.

If Strategy’s inclusion in the S&P 500 were to materialize after Robinhood’s integration, it would be a major symbolic turning point for the industry. It would confirm that bitcoin, once marginalized, can now coexist with the strict standards of American institutional finance. However, this official recognition could also reshuffle the cards, as Bitcoin treasury companies would then have to face unprecedented demands for transparency, governance, and financial strength.