Dollar Dips, But Bitcoin Gains Remain Fragile

Bitcoin wobbles again, caught in the turmoil of a tense global economic context. As sensitive political deadlines approach, fear returns to the markets and revives a well-known pattern : the fall of the dollar often precedes a bottom for BTC. This inverse correlation, already observed in previous cycles, intrigues investors once again. While bitcoin tries to rebound, macroeconomic signals multiply and suggest a new episode of high tension for the market’s leading crypto asset.

A technical rebound under watch

After a weekly close deemed fragile, bitcoin despite the storm, attempted a surge at the opening of the US markets this Monday, briefly passing above the $88,000 mark.

This movement was met with skepticism by several traders. Analyst Killa, in a comment shared on X, stated : “I think the maximum extension is around 89–91K before another drop”. This technical caution reflects ongoing distrust regarding the strength of the rebound.

TradingView data confirms that this rebound happened after a low at $86,000. However, several signals suggest that the market remains under pressure :

• The recovery remains modest and occurs in a context of increased volatility since the beginning of the year ;
• The $86,000 level is seen as a critical threshold, whose break could signal a new bearish phase ;
• Technical resistances are located around $89,000 to $91,000, limiting immediate upside potential ;
• The overall trader sentiment remains cautious, in the absence of short-term positive macroeconomic catalysts.

This technical configuration reveals a wait-and-see market, where every price move is scrutinized in search of a clearer directional signal. The return of volatility makes any forecast unstable, and attention now focuses on bitcoin’s ability to preserve its recent lows.

Macroeconomic signals take over

Beyond technical considerations, some players are watching macroeconomic developments to anticipate bitcoin’s next moves.

This is the case for trader BitBull, who draws attention to the growing weakness of the US dollar, measured by the DXY index. “Every time the DXY has fallen below 96 in the past, bitcoin formed a bottom. Even the two strongest BTC rallies happened when the DXY dropped below 96. And now, the DXY crash seems imminent,” he stated on X, posting a cross chart between BTC and the dollar.

However, this depreciation of the greenback is only one element among others in a tense macroeconomic context. Markets must deal with a series of uncertainties, ranging from the risk of a US budget shutdown scheduled for January 30, to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, and ongoing trade tensions. In its weekly note, QCP Capital mentions “an analogy with last autumn’s budget showdown, which coincided with a sharp retreat in crypto markets”.

Despite these tensions, signs of resilience are emerging from long-term investors. Financial services provider IG believes that “despite the sharp drop, Monday’s rebound suggests that underlying demand remains intact”.

The company highlights that “long-term investors seem more willing to absorb supply at lower levels,” interpreting the current sequence not as a structural break, but as a correction linked to macroeconomic shocks. IG identifies the zones of $94,000 and $100,000 as potential resistances, while reminding of the importance of the $86,000 threshold in case of relapse.

While the market remains tense, $1.72 billion flows out of US Bitcoin ETFs in one week, reinforcing doubts about the strength of the rebound. Between macroeconomic uncertainties and technical pressure, signals remain mixed. Bitcoin stays in a fragile zone, where every move of the dollar or institutions can trigger a decisive reversal.