ETF Weakness Shows Fragility Of Institutional Support

The hope for a sustainable institutional adoption via spot Bitcoin ETFs meets a harsh return of volatility. Praised in 2024 as vectors of stability, these products have just recorded more than 680 million dollars in net outflows in the first week of 2026. This sudden drop, in a climate of monetary uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, questions the solidity of their anchorage in traditional finance and raises doubts about the market’s ability to absorb shocks in the long term.

Capital flight : a black week for Bitcoin ETFs

While bitcoin flirts with $90,000, the first full week of 2026 ended with net outflows of 681 million dollars on spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to data published by SoSoValue.

These divestments were recorded over four consecutive sessions, from Tuesday to Friday, with a peak on Wednesday, January 3rd, when withdrawals reached 486 million dollars. The movement continued on Thursday (-398.9 million) and Friday (-249.9 million), canceling out the inflows observed at the start of the week, notably Tuesday, January 2nd (+471.1 million) and Friday, January 5th (+697.2 million).

On the Ethereum ETF side, the weekly balance is also negative, with 68.6 million dollars in net outflows.

These data reveal a sharp reversal in market sentiment. The early-year dynamic quickly gave way to a marked withdrawal move. To better visualize the magnitude of flows during the week, here are the key figures :

• Tuesday, January 2nd : +471.1 million $ ;
• Wednesday, January 3rd : -486 million $ ;
• Thursday, January 4th : -398.9 million $ ;
• Friday, January 5th : +697.2 million $ in the morning, canceled by -249.9 million $ in outflows later ;
• Weekly total (BTC ETFs) : -681 million $ ;
• Weekly total (ETH ETFs) : -68.6 million $, with net assets remaining around 18.7 billion $.

These massive outflows, concentrated over several consecutive days, signal a lack of conviction among institutional investors, who seem to have acted with marked caution from the first signs of macroeconomic volatility.

Macroeconomic concerns and strategic repositioning

Behind this wave of withdrawals, the overall macroeconomic environment seems to play a decisive role.

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, directly attributes this change of course to an uncertain economic context. “With rate cuts in the first quarter seeming less and less likely and geopolitical risks on the rise, macroeconomic conditions have switched to a risk-off mode,” he explains.

According to him, as long as clearer positive signals are not sent by the Federal Reserve or inflation data, caution should continue to dominate investment decisions : “until clearer signals emerge, positioning will likely remain cautious,” he adds.

In this climate of uncertainty, institutional investors seem to want to slow their exposure to risky assets, including cryptos, which are widely integrated into portfolios through these new ETFs. This temporary withdrawal could reflect a desire to wait for the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases in the United States, or a possible shift in the Fed’s communication, before redeploying capital.

However, despite this unfavorable climate, structural interest signals persist. Indeed, Morgan Stanley has filed an application with the SEC to launch two additional crypto ETFs, one backed by bitcoin, the other by Solana. Furthermore, Bank of America has authorized its wealth management advisors to recommend exposures via four Bitcoin ETFs. These moves confirm that, despite the current uncertainty, institutional interest in cryptos has not completely faded.

If current flows reflect a phase of caution, some analysts maintain a bold long-term view. According to them, bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, driven by gradual global adoption and reinforced scarcity dynamics. In the short term, the market remains suspended to macroeconomic signals.