Ethereum Faces What Could Be the “Biggest Bear Trap” Yet This Month

September has never been kind to Ethereum. In the memory of crypto traders, this month often rhymes with brutal correction. Analysts agree that this year will not be an exception: ETH could stumble before taking off again. But the scenario would not stop there. Behind the darkened picture, some already see a revenge shaping up in October. The famous “Uptober” could turn fear into opportunity, and put the prince of altcoins back in the spotlight.

Ethereum: a false bearish signal trapping crypto traders

Attention is focused on Johnny Woo, full-time trader, who warns of a possible trapping scenario. According to him, the Ethereum price could simulate a worrying breakout before violently rebounding. “It might look bearish at first, but if it plays out, it could be the biggest bear trap I’ve ever seen. In September, they could paint a head-and-shoulders pattern to spook everyone, then invalidate it in ‘Uptober,’ trapping people and forcing them to buy higher. We’ve seen this before plenty of times, so it’s definitely possible.”

The story lends credibility to this hypothesis. In September 2021, ETH had dropped 30% before marking a historic record in November. 

Today, some mention a drop toward 3,350 dollars as a support zone, before a potential triumphant comeback. The “weak hands” might sell too early, leaving the field open to patient investors.

September, the cursed month before the liberating Uptober

Statistics don’t lie: September has often cost Ethereum dearly. According to CoinGlass, six of the last ten Septembers ended in losses, with an average of -6%. The year 2017 even saw a -21.6% drop. 

Analyst Benjamin Cowen anticipates a return toward the 21-week exponential moving average, around 3,500 dollars.

Another followed trader, Michaël van de Poppe, sees in this drop an ideal entry point: 

$ETH starts to break down, on its way towards a beautiful spot to accumulate before Q4 is ready to take off.

But September is not an end in itself. Historical figures show that October and November are often favorable to ETH: +4.7% on average in October and +7.8% in November. 

This dynamic fuels the myth of “Uptober,” where the pain of corrections turns into bullish euphoria.

Ethereum, backbone of tokenized finance

Beyond the turbulence, Ethereum’s fundamentals have never been stronger. Institutional flows bear witness: in August, ETH spot ETFs recorded more than 2.79 billion dollars in inflows. Whales are also massively converting bitcoin into ETH: one single actor transferred 1 billion dollars.

OKX Singapore’s CEO, Gracie Lin, insists on the long-term perspective: 

Macro events like US jobs data (out this Friday) and the Fed’s upcoming rate decision will likely bring short-term volatility, but the real story is structural, and Ethereum powering most of these flows, long-term growth will come from how these rails interconnect — regardless of this month’s news cycle.

Key figures to remember

• -30%: ETH correction in September 2021 before an ATH; 
• -21.6%: September 2017 drop, followed by a recovery;
• 2.79 billion $: ETH spot ETF inflows in August 2025;
• 1 billion $: converted into ETH by a whale in August;
• 35 trillion $: ETH market cap forecast by 2032/34 according to optimistic analysts.

Ethereum could stumble again this month, true to its reputation for a difficult September. But a paradigm shift is emerging: when bitcoin climbs, institutional flows now head towards Ethereum. Whales, far from giving in to panic, seem to be starting a real rush for ether, perhaps the strongest signal of an upcoming bullish cycle.