Ethereum Surges On Inflows, But September May Break The Trend

Driven by 638 million dollars in inflows on its ETFs in one week, Ethereum establishes itself as the asset of the moment among institutional investors. However, technical and historical signals call for caution. With 99 % of the supply currently in profit and a traditionally bearish September, the market could quickly turn.

Institutional funds bet on Ethereum

Between massive enthusiasm and strategic accumulation, Ethereum ETF data reveal an unprecedented investment momentum.

SoSoValue indicates that “Ethereum funds recorded 638 million dollars in net inflows between September 8 and 12”, with Fidelity’s FETH fund leading with 381 million dollars. This week of positive flows marks the fourth consecutive one, bringing cumulative inflows to over 13.3 billion dollars.

Moreover, Ethereum ETFs’ assets under management (AUM) now cross the symbolic mark of 30 billion dollars, mainly supported by Fidelity and BlackRock, followed by Grayscale and Bitwise.

This institutional wave is accompanied by a deep repositioning of the supply in the market :

• ETH reserves on exchange platforms have dropped to their lowest level since 2016, reflecting a net decrease in selling pressure ;

• 36 million ETH are now locked in staking, about 30 % of the total supply, significantly reducing available liquidity ;

• The concentration of ETH in long-term investment pockets structurally tightens the supply.

In this context, Ethereum’s bullish trajectory is supported by solid foundations.

September, profit-taking month : warning signals accumulate

Behind the euphoria of incoming flows, some technical signals and historical data urge caution. While the ETH price currently hovers around 4,520 dollars, several indicators point to an increased risk of short-term profit-taking.

Historically, September is hardly favorable for the asset, as Ethereum’s median return in September is -12.7% since inception. And this pattern could well repeat.

According to on-chain data, nearly 99 % of the circulating supply of ETH is currently in profit, a level considered excessive and often correlated with corrective phases.

Technically, ETH moves within a “rising wedge” configuration, a chart pattern known to precede bearish reversals. Immediate support levels are identified at 4,485 dollars and 4,382 dollars, while resistance zones lie between 4,760 and 4,945 dollars.

If ETH were to sustainably break above 4,700 dollars, a series of cascade liquidations could however propel the price toward the 4,900 to 5,000 dollar range. Conversely, a break below the mentioned supports would increase correction risk.