Experts Debate Bitcoin Path Toward 57000 Level

Bitcoin is progressing, but the market remains tense. Despite a rebound of over 29 % since February, several analysts anticipate a new phase of decline. In their sights, a precise level: $57,000, identified as a possible cycle bottom. Between reading past cycles, technical signals, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, projections converge on a correction scenario.

A Historic Cycle Pointing to a Floor at $57,000

According to investor Michael Terpin, bitcoin could reach a bottom around $57,000 by October 2026, based on the repetition of previous cycles. The analysis rests on a clearly identified timeline: historically, about one year separates the peak of a cycle from its bottom.

After a high recorded in October 2025 above $126,000, this projection fits a delayed correction logic. Terpin remains cautious about immediate prospects. He asserts : “bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year, but this scenario remains unlikely.”

Here are some key points :

• Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000 after a rebound of more than 29 % since February ;
• A return to $100,000 remains unlikely without major catalysts ;
• Technical levels monitored include $73,000 then $65,710 in case of rejection ;
• The market consensus anticipates a new bearish phase by October.

This interpretation is shared by other analysts. Matthew Hyland mentions a gradual correction scenario, estimating that “the scenario mostly anticipated by consensus for bitcoin remains a new drop by October.”

This convergence of analyses highlights a market still fragile despite its recent rebound.

Between Macroeconomic Tensions and Lack of Euphoria

Beyond historical models, several external factors weigh on market dynamics. The maintenance of high rates in the United States, combined with an uncertain geopolitical environment, limits liquidity inflows to risky assets.

In this climate, even positive flows recorded by bitcoin ETFs are not enough to trigger a true phase of euphoria. Market sentiment remains measured, as evidenced by a Fear & Greed index returned to neutral territory. This lack of enthusiasm is perceived by some analysts as a revealing signal of an incomplete cycle.

Other voices offer a different long-term perspective. Analyst Peter Brandt foresees a bottom between September and October 2026, followed by a potential major bullish move, with targets ranging from $300,000 to $500,000. This scenario suggests a purge phase before a major expansion, placing the current movement in a consolidation logic rather than a definitive reversal.

In this environment, the bitcoin market depends on several key variables: macroeconomic conditions, institutional flows, and investor psychology. If the $57,000 scenario is confirmed, it could mark a pivotal step before a new cycle. Conversely, a quicker return to current highs would depend on a massive return of liquidity and confidence, two elements still uncertain at this stage.