Fidelity Points To Critical Support Level At $45,000

Bitcoin faces a decisive zone. As the post-halving euphoria fades, the spotlight turns to a key level : 65,000 dollars. Much more than a former peak, this threshold becomes a cycle indicator, at the intersection of technical tensions and long-term projections. Jurrien Timmer, macroeconomic director at Fidelity, revives the debate by highlighting, via the power law model, that a drop below this level could trigger a prolonged compression phase.

The power law model raises the alarm on critical levels

The $65,000 threshold stands out as a major tension point for bitcoin, according to Jurrien Timmer, global macro director at Fidelity Investments.

In an analysis published on X, the expert discusses a possible consolidation scenario in 2026, in which this price level could become a real test of market strength. “For now, the red line for Bitcoin is at $65,000, its previous peak. Below that, the $45,000 level represents the trend defined by the power law model,” he specifies.

The model he uses, the power law, tries to estimate Bitcoin’s theoretical value over the long term, by tracing a curve modeling its historical growth. If the market remains stagnant, this trend line could fall to $65,000, making this threshold decisive : “this level is still far off, but if bitcoin consolidates during the year, this trend line could move closer to $65,000 and become a true point of no return for the asset,” he adds.

In this analysis, Bitcoin is stuck between two key levels: a historical resistance and a mathematical support. Timmer points out that the current price is moving away from the power law trajectory, favoring another model: the S-curve adoption model, inspired by technological diffusion. To clarify this model’s implications, here are the key elements discussed :

• $65,000 represents the former market peak and a critical support threshold if BTC enters a consolidation phase ;

• $45,000 is currently the power law support line: a level historically associated with cycle lows ;
• The bitcoin price, previously aligned with the power law, now seems to follow the Internet adoption curve, which could explain a temporary gap between projected valuation and observed price ;
• A drop below $65,000, if it occurs, could trigger a lasting bearish signal and dispute medium-term bullish scenarios.

This market reading imposes a return to mathematical fundamentals in cycle analysis. By clearly identifying levels to watch, Timmer offers a structured framework for those attempting to operate in an increasingly difficult market to anticipate.

Towards the end of 4-year cycles ? A new reality for bitcoin

Jurrien Timmer’s analysis does not stop at just technical levels. It also reignites a deeper debate: is the historical four-year cycle model still relevant?

After a red 2025, a first for a year following a halving, some analysts openly question the validity of this paradigm. This trend is supported by David Eng. He warns : “the idea that bitcoin has entered an S-curve pricing regime, without bear markets, is a misreading of how prices form.” According to him, despite the evolution, bear markets are likely to persist because bitcoin remains a rare, limited asset integrated into a volatile financial ecosystem.

Eng adds a crucial point : “bitcoin is not stagnating; it is compressing below its long-term growth law, and history shows that resolution comes from the price catching up with this trajectory, not the opposite.” This compression mentioned by the analyst suggests an accumulation or stagnation phase before a possible bullish impulse.

In other words, according to this reading, the crypto king’s price is currently temporarily underperforming compared to its historical growth trajectory, which could open the door to a future rebound if we follow the logic of past models.

In the long term, some models extend the horizon far beyond current thresholds: according to VanEck’s projections, bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if its momentum remains aligned with major asset classes. An extreme scenario, but one that already fuels bets on the coming decades.