Gold and Silver Surge in 2025 as Bitcoin Stumbles After Record High

The year 2025 has shown a clear divide between cryptocurrencies and precious metals. Gold and silver have delivered impressive gains, while Bitcoin, after months of strong performance, has reversed course. Despite rising as much as 40% year-to-date (YTD) by October, Bitcoin is now down 6% YTD, pointing to a rough end-of-year stretch for the largest cryptocurrency.

Precious Metals Outshine Crypto in 2025

Bitcoin’s retreat follows its all-time high of $126,000 in October, from which it has dropped roughly 28%. In contrast, gold and silver have seen historic gains. Gold has climbed 72% year-to-date (YTD), adding around $13.2 trillion to its market value, while silver has surged 155% YTD to $4.2 trillion and risen to become the third-largest asset in the world. 

The precious metal is also on track for an eight-month winning streak, a level of consistency not seen since 1980, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Together, these two metals have added approximately $16 trillion in market capitalization in 2025 alone.

Meanwhile, performance across the broader cryptocurrency market has been uneven. Ethereum is down over 11% YTD, XRP has fallen 9%, Solana has lost 34%, Dogecoin is off 60%, and Cardano has dropped 55%. Binance Coin (BNB) remains an exception, posting a 20% YTD increase.

Why Bitcoin and Crypto Are Struggling

Experts suggest several factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s slowdown. Piyush Walke of Delta Exchange noted that the divergence between cryptocurrencies and precious metals indicates that the recent pullback is not simply a flight to safe-haven assets. Instead, investors appear to be reassessing their exposure amid rising geopolitical tensions, concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, and ongoing trade uncertainties.

The Kobeissi Letter described the market condition as a structured bear market driven by high leverage. Supporting this view, Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, explained that Bitcoin’s narrow trading range in recent weeks aligns with historical year-end patterns, where investors often trim underperforming assets while reallocating capital toward stronger performers.

That same rotation dynamic also underpins a more constructive interpretation of Bitcoin’s weakness. Crypto commentator Ash Crypto argued that the recent underperformance reflects a temporary decoupling rather than a structural flaw, noting that capital has been flowing first into traditional hedges such as gold and silver amid macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks. Historically, precious metals tend to absorb defensive inflows earlier, with Bitcoin responding later in the cycle, suggesting the current slowdown fits a familiar market pattern rather than signaling a fundamental breakdown.

Seasonal Trends and Market Resets Fuel Hopes of a Bitcoin Recovery

Despite recent setbacks, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term outlook, with their views converging around a developing recovery narrative.

• That cautious optimism starts with seasonal patterns, as Sean Farrell observed that when Bitcoin ends December in negative territory, January has historically delivered a rebound, suggesting the current weakness may not persist for long.
• This seasonal view is reinforced by broader market analysis, with crypto research firm 10X Research arguing that Bitcoin is approaching a point where a short-term bounce becomes increasingly plausible.
• According to the firm, a roughly 30% correction spread over about two and a half months has reset technical indicators and eased market pressure, leaving conditions better aligned for a more durable recovery to take shape.

Looking further ahead, long-term perspectives remain favorable. Crypto analyst Colin Lewis noted that despite the hype around gold and silver, Bitcoin’s potential remains unmatched, and its price could experience significant growth over the coming months or years, ultimately outperforming precious metals over time.

Meanwhile, major financial institutions have revised their Bitcoin forecasts downward. Standard Chartered has cut its year-end price target to $100,000 from $200,000 and adjusted its 2026 outlook to $150,000 from $300,000. Bitcoin currently trades around $90,125, leaving uncertainty over whether it will reach the revised year-end target in the final days of 2025.