Grayscale Outlines Macro Path To New BTC Highs

Grayscale shakes up certainties. In its latest report, the asset manager anticipates a new ATH for bitcoin by June 2026, breaking with the traditional four-year cycle. Against a backdrop of rising public debt, inflationary pressure, and a changing regulatory framework in the United States, this projection relies on clear macroeconomic signals. At a time when trust in fiat currencies is eroding, Grayscale sees bitcoin as a safe haven asset undergoing a structural transformation. Such a vision challenges and redefines market benchmarks.

Grayscale bets on a new bitcoin peak before July 2026

While the leading crypto collapses after a false rebound hope, Grayscale projects that bitcoin could reach a new all-time high during the first half of the year in its latest outlook report for 2026, published on December 16.

This statement is supported by a series of macroeconomic and structural factors. “According to us, the price of the crypto queen will likely reach a new all-time high during the first half of the year”, indicates the asset manager, who also states that the crypto market could enter a new phase, marking the end of the traditional cyclical model : “we anticipate a rise in valuations in 2026 and the end of what is called the four-year cycle”.

To support its forecasts, Grayscale highlights several macroeconomic and market factors which, according to them, will converge in 2026 :

• The depreciation of fiat currencies : “the increase in public debt and its potential long-term inflationary implications” represent, according to Grayscale, a major risk of monetary devaluation ;

• The increased role of bitcoin and Ether as safe havens : “as long as the risk of depreciation of fiat currencies continues to rise, the demand for bitcoin and Ether within portfolios should also continue to grow” ;

• A shift in approach by U.S. regulators : the report mentions a clear inflection in 2024–2025, marked by the adoption of spot ETFs on BTC and ETH, as well as the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins ;

• Expected regulatory clarity : in 2026, Grayscale predicts the adoption of a bipartisan law on the structure of the crypto market, which would strengthen the integration of blockchain into U.S. financial markets.

This combination of factors fuels a strong conviction: that of a market ready to break away from past cycles to enter a new phase, dominated no longer by the sole logic of halving but by macroeconomic and institutional dynamics far more decisive.

A change in usage and market structuring expected in 2026

Beyond the outlook on the bitcoin price, the Grayscale report outlines a deeper transformation of the crypto ecosystem, notably through new investment dynamics.

The firm identifies ten major trends for 2026, among which the sustained growth of the stablecoin market plays a central role. According to the report, these assets will be increasingly “integrated into cross-border payment services, used as collateral on derivatives exchanges, and present on company balance sheets“. They could even eventually serve as alternatives to credit cards in e-commerce.

Another strong signal is the embedding of decentralized finance in investors’ strategies, with growth in lending markets (DeFi Lending) and the widespread use of staking as a default investment reflex.

In parallel, asset tokenization is presented as having reached a “tipping point“, paving the way for broader institutional adoption. Grayscale also takes care to defuse some popular narratives. The company believes that neither quantum computing nor crypto treasuries (DAT) will be decisive factors for valuations in the short term.

Grayscale believes bitcoin could set new records in 2026, betting on a structural evolution of the market and increased institutional adoption. It remains to be seen whether macroeconomic conditions will validate this scenario, in an environment where each cycle now seems to write its own rules.