Bitcoin Faces a Pivotal Moment: Surge or Collapse This Week?

Bitcoin is about to experience a decisive week. Between the Fed meeting, the technical battle around 117,000 dollars and the insatiable appetite of institutions, volatility levers are not lacking. The crypto market is holding its breath: BTC could experience a spectacular surge or a brutal correction. It remains to be seen which direction the digital locomotive will take this time, as contradictory signals accumulate and each camp sharpens its bets.

The Fed at the center of the game: fire injection or cold shower?

This Wednesday, September 17, the Federal Reserve will hold its highly anticipated meeting. Markets are almost unanimously betting on a first rate cut of 0.25%, with some mentioning 0.5%. The situation is rare: since 1996, only three years have seen rate cuts while Wall Street was at its records.

For crypto holders, the message is clear: more liquidity means more fuel for risky assets.

The bet is simple: if the market perceives this move as support for the economy, BTC could soar. But if the announcement is interpreted as a panic reaction to employment, the correction could be severe.

117,000 $: glass wall or springboard for bitcoin?

Alongside the macro calendar, the crypto market is observing a critical technical threshold: 117,000 dollars. For several days, BTC has failed to break this barrier, confirmed by order books where sell offers accumulate.

Crypto traders multiply warnings. Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) wrote: “Knocking on the door of $117,000 now. We need to get over that to continue this next leg up“. 

Same tone at CrypNuevo (@CrypNuevo), who believes Monday and Tuesday will be calm, but Wednesday will bring “explosive volatility”. According to him, BTC could drop toward 112,000 $ before bouncing back. In other words, 117,000 $ is not just a number: it is the battlefield where the next market direction will be decided.

Whales, ETFs and scarcity: the fuel of institutions

Behind these technical movements, a more powerful engine is activating: institutions. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of 2.3 billion dollars, absorbing up to 5,900 BTC in a single day. This represents almost nine times the mined supply in the same period.

On Binance, Bitcoin’s scarcity index jumped for the first time since June. According to CryptoQuant, this indicator rises when buying power exceeds available supply, as if buyers were rushing to buy BTC. This type of peak is generally associated with positive news or a sudden influx of capital.

Some key figures to measure the current tension:

• 117,000 $: decisive technical threshold repeatedly rejected;
• 2.3 billion $: weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs;
• 5,900 BTC: record institutional purchases in a single day;
• Binance scarcity index: first peak since June, sign of possible accumulation.

Investing in bitcoin has been nothing but disappointing lately. According to recent data, 92% of holders are currently in profit. This figure reflects market strength and prevailing optimism, even though several weakness signals are appearing. Historically, this level of profitability has preceded both prolonged surges and violent corrections.