Investors Could Seize Opportunity if Quantum Hack Unlocks Satoshi’s Coins

The debate over whether quantum computers could compromise Bitcoin’s security has resurfaced, focusing on the possibility that future machines might break the encryption protecting some of Bitcoin’s oldest holdings, including those linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. This wallet is believed to hold around 1.1 million BTC. Experts warn that if these coins were suddenly unlocked and released into the market, it could disrupt supply dynamics and put significant pressure on prices. This renewed discussion reflects worries about whether Bitcoin’s older security protocols are strong enough to keep pace with advancing quantum technology.

Bitcoin Faces Potential Quantum Risks

Some speculators have painted dramatic scenarios to illustrate the potential consequences. A prominent YouTuber, Josh Otten, shared a chart suggesting that Bitcoin could fall as low as $3 if a quantum computer successfully breached Satoshi’s wallet and flooded the market with the coins. This scenario drew intense attention online, prompting debates across the crypto community.

Veteran Bitcoin investor Willy Woo shared that such a steep decline could actually create opportunities for long-term holders. He added that the Bitcoin network itself would likely remain resilient, as most holdings are not immediately at risk. Woo explained that about 4 million BTC, including Satoshi’s coins, are stored in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses. These addresses reveal the full public key during transactions, which could make them vulnerable to future attacks by quantum computers. 

Building on this, analysts clarified that any wallet whose full public key is exposed on the blockchain could theoretically have its private key derived by a sufficiently advanced quantum computer, highlighting the potential security risks for these holdings.

However, Bitcoin’s newer wallets have been designed with improved protections. These addresses do not expose the full public key, making it far more difficult for quantum computers to access the private key. Nevertheless, the broader cryptocurrency community remains alert, aware that advances in quantum computing could create serious challenges for digital asset security in the future.

Expert Assessments on Timing and Risk

Experts largely agree that the threat from quantum computers is not immediate. In September, Cointribune reported that Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, acknowledged that quantum computing could eventually compromise Bitcoin’s security but emphasized that this is likely at least a decade away. He also noted that other systems would probably fail before Bitcoin faces a serious risk.

Meanwhile, British cryptographer Adam Back has highlighted that Bitcoin is unlikely to face a quantum computing threat for the next 20 to 40 years, noting that there is ample time to implement post-quantum cryptography standards before current encryption could be compromised.

The potential economic impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin has also been pointed out by crypto expert James Check. He emphasized that the main concern is how quantum computing could affect Bitcoin’s market price rather than the immediate security of coins. Check also noted that it is highly improbable the community would freeze Satoshi’s holdings before a quantum computer could access his wallets and release those coins into the market.