Liquidity, rates and regulation: The keys to Bitcoin price in 2026

Where is bitcoin heading at the beginning of this year? After a 2025 as eventful as it was volatile, the crypto community is dreaming of a new peak. But between liquidity injections, shifting regulations and institutional strategies, the trajectory remains uncertain. What are the right signals to watch for? Where do the traps lie? One thing is sure: 2026 will not be a year like the others.

Rates at floor, liquidity flowing: the golden scenario for Bitcoin

Towards a historic bull run in 2026? Abra’s CEO, Bill Barhydt, foresees a tsunami of liquidity boosted by American monetary policy. In a heated exchange on Schwab Network, he says:

Nothing stops this train. That generally refers to money printing, debt servicing, massive liquidity injections we’ve seen in recent years. And I think we will see a ton of that in 2026. 

The man speaks of a discreet but real return of quantitative easing, started as early as 2025 with bond buybacks by the Fed. In response, interest rates would fall and demand for public debt would erode. Result? An environment where risky assets regain color, bitcoin at the forefront.

The correlation with tech stocks plays fully. There were times when Nvidia or Tesla were more volatile than bitcoin, notes Barhydt. And for good reason: BTC has stabilized around 30% volatility, compared to 60% historically. Enough to reassure investors seeking high returns but fewer shocks.

Crypto and institutions: (almost) perfect marriages

The crypto ecosystem no longer only attracts enthusiasts, but also financial powers. In the same show, John Ha from Swan Bitcoin notes a massive shift in buyer profiles:

Harvard, a $50 billion endowment fund from the Ivy League. Their biggest publicly declared position is Bitcoin. Middle Eastern sovereign funds also hold a significant share of Bitcoin. 

Same tune at Vanguard or Middle Eastern sovereign funds. They all first go through ETFs, considered simpler and safer for new entrants. But this gateway could become a staircase to buying “hard” BTC.

Another phenomenon observed: “Bitcoin Treasury Companies.” Some companies make BTC a strategic asset. Strategy leads the dance, but others appear… and disappear just as fast. It remains to be seen which ones will hold the course. For Ha, adoption will strengthen. Because even if the ETF is more reassuring, some will then want the “real” bitcoin.

Meanwhile, other cryptos indirectly benefit from this institutional enthusiasm. Portfolios often open in duo: BTC, then ETH… and why not Solana, or the current L2s.

Bitcoin under high tension: what if everything depends on the midterms?

If the economy shows milder skies, politics could well spoil it. Michael Terpin, BTC pioneer, does not share the general optimism. According to him, bitcoin could hit a floor at $60,000 by the end of 2026.

His main worry? Michael Terpin estimates that any electoral outcome other than a total Republican victory would compromise a favorable regulatory climate for crypto. In short, if Republicans don’t sweep both chambers, the regulatory climate will remain tense for the crypto sphere.

Currently, on Polymarket, the chances of a GOP sweep cap at 19%. And American midterm election history often shows a divided Congress. Crypto investors must therefore deal with a major political variable.

The community remains divided. On one side, approved ETFs, growing adoption. On the other, threats of restrictive laws, investigations on certain platforms, and an ever more present financial regulator. Nothing is decided.

Figures, signals and landmarks to remember

• The bitcoin price is trading at $87,524 at the time of writing;
• The Fed started a debt buyback policy since the end of 2025;
• Harvard shows BTC as the top public asset in its portfolio;
• Crypto ETFs are gaining legitimacy, including at Vanguard;
• The GOP sweep has only a 19% chance according to Polymarket.

While some already see a six-figure bitcoin, the bells don’t ring in unison. On Polymarket, bettors are turning away from the hypothesis of a BTC at $150,000 by 2026. The trajectory remains uncertain, as do the balance of power that will influence it.