Massive Crypto Options Expiry: $5 Billion in BTC and ETH on the Line

Crypto markets are gearing up for a decisive day with the simultaneous expiration of over 5 billion dollars in Bitcoin and Ethereum options. This massive deadline comes as Bitcoin crosses new all-time highs beyond 118,000 dollars. But what do these data reveal about investors’ mindset and what movements should be anticipated?

Bitcoin and Ethereum Face a Critical 5 Billion Dollar Expiration

The latest data released by Deribit paint an impressive picture: 4.3 billion dollars in Bitcoin options and 712 million dollars in Ethereum options expire this Friday. This volume far exceeds the one recorded on July 4, which amounted to 3.6 billion dollars.

For Bitcoin, 36,970 contracts expire, with a Put-to-Call ratio of 1.06, indicating a fragile balance between bearish and bullish positions.

The maximum pain level – that is, the price around which losses are greatest for options holders — is set at 108,000 dollars. It is at this threshold that the majority of contracts will expire worthless.

Ethereum is not left out, with 239,926 contracts expiring and a slightly higher Put-to-Call ratio of 1.11. Its maximum pain point is estimated at 2,600 dollars, a level well below its current price, near 2,970 dollars.

This setup reflects palpable tension in the markets. Traders oscillate between the euphoria generated by recent highs and caution in the face of a potential technical correction.

According to the maximum pain theory, prices may tend to gravitate toward these critical levels as expiration approaches.

This expiration comes as Bitcoin trades above 118,000 dollars, reaching a new all-time record. Ethereum, for its part, continues its rally at 2,978 dollars, up 8% in 24 hours, after a peak above 3,000 dollars.

These levels, well above maximum pain thresholds, increase the pressure on open positions.

Contradictory Signals in an Overheated Market

According to Greeks.live, no clear consensus emerges on market direction. Operators seem to react more to immediate news than to technical or fundamental signals, making price movements particularly unpredictable.

More concerning still: the rise of extreme leveraged strategies, reaching up to 500x. A risk-taking that some analysts call “suicidal.” These positions greatly amplify volatility and can trigger cascading liquidations in case of a sharp reversal.

Currently, Bitcoin trades around 118,300 dollars, well above its critical threshold. This could exert short-term downward pressure, as market makers have every interest in bringing prices back toward maximum pain levels.

However, the strength of fundamentals, notably institutional accumulation, could contain any sharp correction.

Ethereum, on its side, shows impressive resilience. Its bullish momentum could continue, driven by the rise of tokenization. According to Token Terminal, more than 6 billion dollars of real assets are now tokenized on its blockchain, solidifying its status as a reference infrastructure in decentralized finance.

In summary, this Friday’s expiration is part of a maturation phase in the crypto market. While some projections point to a Bitcoin at 130,000 dollars, this expiration may represent only a technical pause in an overall bullish trend. Experienced traders will be well advised to closely watch the first post-expiration signals to anticipate potential weekend moves.