New Kaiko Report Reveals Key Technical Signals On Bitcoin’s Decline

The fragile calm of the crypto market has shattered. In a few sessions, bitcoin fell sharply to nearly 60,000 dollars, reviving doubts about the strength of the bullish cycle. This 32 % correction since the halving prompts questions : simple turbulence or market pivot point? A study by Kaiko Research puts forward a strong hypothesis : bitcoin may have reached the midpoint of the bear market.

Towards a technical low ? Signals of the midpoint

Bitcoin fell to 60,000 dollars, its lowest level since October 2024. According to a Kaiko Research study, this drop could mark a pivotal stage in the cycle, despite a fragile rebound.

“The 32% drop in Bitcoin represents the sharpest correction since the 2024 halving, and could very well constitute the central point of the current bear market”, the report states. This hypothesis is based on a cross-analysis of several quantitative indicators, aiming to understand the underlying dynamics of the current decline.

Here are the signals revealed in Kaiko’s analysis :

• Spot volume down 30 % since the peak in March 2024, revealing a clear disengagement of active buyers ;
• Open interest of futures contracts down 14 %, confirming the gradual closing of long positions ;
• Stablecoin dominance rising, generally seen as a marker of increasing risk aversion on exchange platforms ;
• A -32% post-halving correction, the largest since this event, although moderate compared to previous cycles ;
• A retracement ratio of 52 % since the all-time high, considered relatively “shallow” compared to past bear markets.

These elements are used to show that the market may have passed half of the bear cycle, without ruling out the possibility of new shocks. The approach chosen by Kaiko is methodical. Rather than relying solely on prices, the study favors a structural analysis of investor behavior and capital flows.

A trial for investors : fear, hesitation, and arbitrage

Beyond technical signals, the current market climate reflects a widespread decline in sentiment. Indeed, the fear and greed index reaches unprecedented lows since the FTX collapse in 2022. This dynamic has been reinforced by massive liquidations on derivatives platforms, signalling increased selling pressure and a snowball effect on long positions.

The return to a symbolic level such as 60,000 dollars was accompanied by a decline in overall liquidity. Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs intensified, particularly in American structures, reflecting some caution among institutional managers. At the same time, the rise in volatility on traditional markets, especially technology stocks, pushed some actors to reduce their exposure to risky assets, including bitcoin.

The bitcoin price tests a critical threshold, reigniting tensions in an already fragile market. Between the hypothesis of a cyclical low and persistent bearish signals, uncertainty prevails. The coming weeks will be decisive to evaluate whether this correction marks a temporary pause or the extension of a deeper bear cycle.