Nobel Peace Prize Betting on Polymarket Raises Web Scraping Concerns

Polymarket is often seen as a reflection of public opinion and event likelihood. However, ahead of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement, it drew suspicion after a sudden shift in betting odds suggested someone might have known the result beforehand.

Unusual Polymarket Bets Point to Early Nobel Clues

Hours before the official announcement, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, initially seen as the least likely to win, saw her Polymarket odds jump from about 3.75% to 72.8% in under two hours. The surge pushed her past Yulia Navalnaya and Donald Trump, who had been leading the market. 

The rapid spike in bets, occurring well ahead of the public reveal, raised concerns of insider influence and preceded Machado’s confirmation as the Nobel Peace Prize winner.

As scrutiny grew, professional gambler Fhantom Bets hosted an interview on X Space with the alleged insider behind the Nobel Peace Prize bets. While no direct evidence emerged from the conversation, several points stood out. According to Fhantom’s analysis, the key information might not have come from an internal leak but from details that were already visible on the Nobel website before the announcement.

It turns out the answer may have been hiding in plain sight — on the Nobel website itself.

Early Clues and Web Scraping

The alleged insider highlighted a few key points, emphasizing the potential of web scraping, noting that the information was accessible to anyone, and suggesting that “you can brute force your way into a lot of things.”

A notable clue was an image of Maria Corina Machado that reportedly appeared in the Nobel website’s uploads folder before the announcement. The file’s “last modified” timestamp showed 07:18 GMT on October 10, more than an hour ahead of the Nobel Committee’s public statement. This indicated that the site had already been updated with content identifying Machado as the Peace Prize winner.

Fhantom Bets explained:

It’s cool to see that a few hours before the official announcement, there was definitely strong evidence that Machado was the winner. There are still a few questions that remain unanswered. Unfortunately the rest is.. speculation.

Suspicious Winnings Trigger Nobel Probe

According to The Guardian, one trader reportedly won more than $65,000 from the wager, while another account, created on the same day, also profited from the bets. These details reinforced the suspicion that the betting activity relied on information obtained before the official announcement.

The unusual betting activity has now drawn the attention of Norwegian authorities, who are investigating possible leaks from the closely guarded Nobel Committee. Kristian Berg Harpviken, head of the Nobel Institute, said the organization seemed to have been targeted by a criminal actor trying to profit from confidential prize information.