Over $10B At Risk As Bitcoin Faces Critical Breakdown

At the beginning of this year, a technical indicator draws attention : liquidation data on Bitcoin futures contracts reveal a marked imbalance. This signal, rarely observed at this level, suggests that a simple price movement could trigger a series of chain liquidations. For some analysts, this configuration could propel BTC towards 100,000 dollars.

A Market Under Pressure : Imbalanced Liquidation Data

While Bitcoin currently oscillates between $90,000 and $94,000, the latest data published by CoinGlass show a particularly imbalanced market situation in terms of leveraged positions.

If the Bitcoin price were to drop back to $84,000, more than $10.65 billion worth of long positions would be automatically liquidated. Conversely, a rise to $104,000 would trigger only $2 billion in short position liquidations.

This imbalance has major implications for upcoming volatility. Liquidations can act as forced market orders, meaning they can sharply amplify price movements both up and down.

Here are the main points highlighted by the CoinGlass data analysis :

• $10.65 billion of long positions would be liquidated if BTC falls back to $84,000 ;

• Only $2 billion of short positions would be liquidated if BTC rises to $104,000 ;

• The market is thus more exposed to downward pressure, with potential domino effects in case of a drop ;

• The situation suggests that the potential for a bullish squeeze is currently limited, unless the distribution of positions changes quickly ;

• The market remains unstable : a sudden move either way could trigger violent chain reactions.

Faced with this configuration, analysts call for caution. The data suggest that if a drop to $84,000 materializes, selling pressure could intensify very rapidly. Enough to create a negative spiral much more brutal than the apparent stability of the current price suggests. The bullish potential remains dependent on a more aggressive repositioning by market players.

Retail Traders Under Pressure : Towards an Explosive Squeeze?

The analysis takes a different turn when looking at the on-chain data specific to retail traders via the Hyperliquid platform.

According to trader ChimpZoo, retail actors are massively positioned short. He notes that “if the market rises, about 6,000 BTC of short positions held by retail traders could be liquidated, compared to only 2,000 BTC of long positions in the event of an equivalent drop”.

This situation, described as “absurd” by the analyst, reveals the possibility of a rapid and brutal price increase fueled by the chain liquidation of these short positions.

However, a closer examination of the data moderates this view. In case of a $10,000 move in either direction, the potential liquidations turn out to be quite symmetrical: around 3,860 BTC in long positions versus 4,100 BTC in short positions.

Crypto analyst Dan has warned that a direct return to new all-time highs is unlikely. According to him, Bitcoin must first pass back above the six-to-twelve-month holder cost basis to confirm a true trend reversal.

The market remains suspended at key technical thresholds, while Bitcoin’s RSI is soaring, signaling a possible overheating. Between liquidation imbalances and the resistance of major levels, the trajectory remains uncertain. Only a sustained recovery above critical zones would validate a new bullish cycle.