Over A Third Of Bitcoins Lost : What Does It Mean For The Cryptocurrency ?

In the crypto ecosystem, few announcements redefine the fundamentals. However, Cane Island Digital reveals that more than one-third of mined bitcoins are permanently lost. Far from just a number, this reality disrupts the understanding of the actual supply, increases the scarcity of the asset, and questions current valuation models. This silent phenomenon, often ignored, poses critical challenges.

Bitcoin loss and its figures

While bitcoin has just crossed a new record of over $111,000, Cane Island Digital confirmed an alarming phenomenon: more than 6 million bitcoins have been irretrievably lost. This data, although worrying, is not new. In April 2020, an initial estimate mentioned 4 million BTC lost.

One-Third of All Bitcoin Have Been Lost

6 June 2025 Research Note

Over one-third of all bitcoin ever mined have been permanently removed from circulation. This research note updates prior estimates from April 2020, which identified just over 4 million lost coins. As of… pic.twitter.com/WIQZFKUIIf

— Cane Island Digital Research (@CaneDigital) June 2, 2025

This figure has therefore increased significantly in just five years, implying that over 2 million bitcoins have been lost since 2020, a pace that raises questions about the integrity of the circulating bitcoin supply.

The reasons for this massive loss are varied and include :

• Private key forgetfulness : many bitcoin holders have lost access to their wallets due to losing their private keys, a well-known phenomenon in the ecosystem ;

• Death without key transmission : lack of estate planning among bitcoin holders has led to the loss of millions of coins ;

• Human errors : mistakes in sending or managing funds have resulted in the permanent loss of BTC;

• Unsecured wallets : the use of vulnerable or poorly secured wallets has led to losses due to hacks or technical failures.

These massive losses directly affect the bitcoin supply. Cane Island Digital highlights that the crypto’s scarcity is increasing, making the asset even more valuable. Such a situation also complicates traditional valuation models. The available supply continues to decrease, which could influence the prices and future valuations of bitcoin.

Market repercussions and outlook

While the loss of bitcoin might seem anecdotal to some, its impact on the crypto market is far from negligible. First, these millions of BTC now inaccessible further accentuate the perceived scarcity of the asset.

At a time when bitcoin is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset, these losses will only add weight to the crypto’s value, partly driven by the perception of an increasingly reduced supply. This could lead to increased volatility or even sustained upward pressure on the bitcoin price, with investors seeking to secure shares of an ever rarer asset.

If the supply shortage benefits those holding bitcoins today, the continuous erosion of coin supply could also disrupt value calculations. In the future, it will be essential for analysts to revise their valuation models to include the current supply as well as coins that are permanently lost and inaccessible.

The loss of more than 6 million BTC will have profound consequences on bitcoin market dynamics. While these losses increase scarcity and may help boost the asset’s attractiveness with potentially a price of $126,000 this month, they also complicate forecasts about its price and its place in the global financial system. This new reality offers important reflection for investors and analysts about bitcoin’s future and the necessity of adapting economic models to a supply that keeps shrinking.