Peterson Calls February " The Real Uptober " For Crypto

October is often awaited as the flagship month for bitcoin, but recent data challenges this myth. According to quantitative analyst Timothy Peterson, February would actually offer more reliable performance, supported by solid statistics and repetitive market patterns. While January ends on an uncertain note, a new seasonal signal could emerge. What if the real “Uptober” now falls in February? This shift could well redefine crypto investment strategies this year.

Historic Performances that Redraw Seasonality

The analysis by Timothy Peterson, asset manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, reveals an unexpected seasonal signal: February outperforms October in terms of performance for bitcoin, while the latter falls amid reduced risk appetite in the crypto market.

“February is actually the month that deserves the Uptober label”, he states in a declaration. This reading is based on concrete data consolidated over several years, whose accumulation reveals a repetitive pattern.

Here are the key points noted by the analyst :

• 8.4 % median return for the week ending around February 21, with a 60% probability of a positive close ;
• A weekly median of +7 % over the entire month of February since 2016, superior to performance observed in October ;
• The first three weeks of February acted as early annual trend indicators in 2018, 2022, and 2025, with variations ranging from +4 % to −5 % depending on the year.

These observations are not presented as certainties but as robust statistical benchmarks. Peterson specifies that these performances should be interpreted as signals of potential trends, useful in building allocation strategies, especially during cycle transition periods. In this sense, February appears not merely as a calendar waypoint but as a possibly decisive sequence for the crypto market.

Macroeconomic and Technical Factors in Support

Beyond simple historical data, several structural elements now seem to favor a bullish momentum next February.

For Peterson, the origin of this seasonality is not purely crypto-related. He explains: “the driver of this performance is macroeconomic. Corporate financial results, published in mid-February, influence risk markets, of which bitcoin is now a part”. This correlation between macroeconomic flows and cryptos is no longer marginal. It is progressively becoming an essential parameter for analysis.

On the technical side, other indicators confirm this reading. In a Bitcoin Intelligence report, Sina notes that BTC momentum has recently returned to positive despite the recent correction.

The current market structure would be compatible with an accumulation phase. Moreover, the continuous rise of the “Realized Cap” of bitcoin, an indicator measuring the aggregated value of coins in circulation based on their last transaction price, suggests a steady influx of fresh capital into the network. This type of signal is often interpreted as a medium-term confidence marker from institutional or long-term investors.

As seasonal benchmarks evolve, February stands out as a key month to watch. Between technical signals and macroeconomic forces, bitcoin weathers the storm without losing its support, still attracting analysts’ attention. It remains to be seen whether this new cycle will confirm this shift or if it will be just another statistical anomaly.