Polymarket US Nears $15 Billion in Monthly Trading Volume

Polymarket US reached 14.77 billion dollars in notional volume in October 2026, compared to 4.04 billion in June, according to TickerTracker. This increase of around 266% mainly comes from sports betting and parlays, products that several US states challenge in courts.

What does Polymarket US’s 14.77 billion dollar volume measure?

The notional volume counts each contract at its maximum payout value. A contract bought for 10 cents that pays 1 dollar if successful thus weighs 1 dollar in the total. The amounts actually paid by traders are significantly lower, notes FinanceFeeds.

Also relying on data provided by TickerTracker, CNBC rounds to over 14.5 billion dollars for October 2026. The figure therefore measures activity on Polymarket US, not the money staked. These products remain, of course, debated in Europe. Indeed, ESMA equates prediction markets to binary options, banned for retail clients since 2018.

A record volume does not indicate whether traders win either. Galaxy estimates that 69.2% of retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform lose money, with a median loss of about 3 dollars. An April analysis showed 84.1% by another method. However, these studies do not concern Polymarket US.

Parlays and sports on Polymarket US: nearly 90% of October’s volume

Parlay contracts, which combine multiple predictions into one bet, generated 8.6 billion dollars. This represents 58.2% of the month’s volume. Sports contracts added 4.57 billion dollars: or 31%. Together, they thus represent about 89% of the total. According to CNBC, parlays even exceeded 70% of Polymarket US’s volume on Sunday, November 8.

The Football World Cup played a major role. Indeed, football contracts generated 1.81 billion dollars in June, compared to 85.4 million in May. Added to this was the start of the NFL season in September.

As for politics, it remains marginal. Proof: electoral contracts generated 108.2 million dollars in the first ten days of November, compared to 16.6 million in all of September. Despite this growth, electoral contracts therefore represent only 2.2% of Polymarket US’s volume in the first ten days of November. Polymarket has also opened dozens of investigations into suspicious electoral bets.

Annualized revenue of 1.8 billion dollars, but a contested legal framework

On November 10, Polymarket US stated that its annualized revenue exceeded 1.8 billion dollars, compared to over a billion in June. However, this figure reflects the current pace, not the income for a closed fiscal year.

The company launched a new round of about 1 billion dollars based on a valuation of 21 billion. However, the operation is not announced as completed, with about 300 million expected from 1789 Capital.

At the same time, the CFTC (American derivatives regulator) is conducting a wide investigation on Polymarket. It concerns:

• the advertising practices of the prediction markets platform;
• the compliance with a 2022 agreement that barred US residents from accessing its international platform.

No infringement has been established at this stage.

That’s not all! The State of New York also sued Polymarket in September for alleged operation of an unlicensed gambling game. The company claims the exclusive authority of the CFTC before a federal court. In October, the CFTC filed proceedings against ten states. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to settle a similar dispute concerning Kalshi.

In any case, Polymarket US has more than tripled its volume in four months. Its growth nonetheless depends on contested parlay and sports products. To follow: the CFTC investigation, the New York procedure, the New Jersey file before the Supreme Court, and the activity level outside of major sporting events.