Prediction Markets Shift Against Bitcoin

Prediction markets are now betting against bitcoin. On Polymarket, nearly 70 % of bettors believe that BTC will fall below 100,000 dollars before the end of this year. A strong signal, as crypto has just undergone a brutal correction. This shift in market sentiment, driven not by analysts but by the investors themselves, raises questions: is the bullish trend already behind us?

Prediction markets bet on a Bitcoin fall

While investors flee Bitcoin ETFs, on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, ongoing bets indicate a clear and mostly bearish trend : 69 % of participants believe bitcoin will fall below the 100,000 dollar threshold before the end of the year.

This sentiment arises as bitcoin has dropped 12.4 % over two weeks and remains about 14.9 % below its all-time high, estimated at over $126,000.

Polymarket data reveals several important signals :

• 69 % of bettors think bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before the end of this year ;
• The 12.4 % drop over 14 days reflects persistent bearish pressure ;
• There is nearly a 15 % gap between the current price and the last historic peak ;
• The market anticipates a temporary ceiling, contradicting previous optimistic narratives.

This positioning highlights a more cautious dynamic than before. While some long-term forecasts aimed for peaks between $150,000 and $250,000, these bets indicate a tactical repositioning. By placing their money on a moderate hypothesis, Polymarket investors reflect a more realistic, even defensive, market climate, awaiting a possible macroeconomic or sectoral catalyst.

Bearish sentiment reinforced by technical signals

Beyond long-term bets, short-term indicators also trigger concern. Another prediction on Polymarket gives about a 60 % chance that bitcoin will fall below $100,000 as soon as this October, showing fears extend beyond a distant horizon.

Technical indicators point in the same direction. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) dropped to 37, a level generally interpreted as near an oversold zone. The 4-hour data chart shows a “death cross”, a well-known bearish signal among analysts, and the Fear & Greed index hovers around 30, which corresponds to a fear zone in markets.

These elements add to the behavioral analysis of prediction markets, forming a cluster of consistent signs pointing to a possible sharper correction.

While these signals accumulate, their interpretation must remain nuanced. On one hand, they may reflect a strategic repositioning of investors ahead of the next halving or massive profit-taking after previous rises. On the other, these moves may also signal a deeper market cycle change. In any case, this conjunction of indicators shows that the trajectory of the bitcoin price remains highly uncertain.