Red October ? Bitcoin Loses Its Momentum

October often rhymes with “Uptober”, the month where bitcoin ignites the markets with spectacular increases. However, this year, the scenario turns to disappointment. After a promising start, the queen of cryptos gets stuck in an unexpected bearish dynamic, reviving fears of a possible “red October”. A first since 2018, which tests investors’ confidence and questions the market’s solidity in the face of an increasingly tense global economic context.

An October under pressure

Bitcoin’s performance during this October proved disappointing, after a flying start that revealed a positive period.

Here are the key elements explaining this situation :

• A 2.3 % drop : the bitcoin price is currently down 2.3 % compared to its level at the beginning of the month ;

• The worst October since 2013 : if this trend continues, October 2025 could become one of the worst months in bitcoin history, whereas in the past, these months were often synonymous with strong gains, exceeding 40 % ;

• Market volatility : bitcoin is trading in a narrow range between 107,000 and 111,500 dollars, reflecting stagnation compared to high expectations at the start of the month ;

• A “red October” in preparation : a 4 % drop from the current level would be enough to turn this October into a historic underperformance ;

• Pressure factors : the situation is exacerbated by massive liquidations of long positions, rapid profit-taking, and uncertainties about global economic decisions, notably the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.

The only worse one was 2014 (-13%).

2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%

Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD

— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) October 23, 2025

These combined factors fueled an atmosphere of disappointment among investors, whose hopes quickly faded after a promising start to October.

Outlook : between hope and caution

The coming weeks could, however, bring comfort to investors. According to Timothy Peterson, a network economist, a significant portion of bitcoin’s annual gains often occurs after October 3rd, which suggests a potential recovery in the following days.

He points out that “60% of the total yearly performance happens after this date”, a dynamic that could still play in favor of a favorable trend reversal, although the current situation is delicate.

60% of Bitcoin's full-year performance occurs after October 3rd.

75% of annual outcomes wind up in the green box. pic.twitter.com/7uyRGw64sx

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) September 18, 2025

The potential renewed interest could also be fueled by expected announcements from the Federal Reserve at its October 29 meeting, notably the end of quantitative tightening, which would offer a more favorable environment for risk assets, including bitcoin.

However, investors must remain cautious. Although signals of a trend reversal exist, economic uncertainty, combined with erratic movements in the crypto market, makes any forecast difficult. The risks of new corrections are real, and investors must prepare for ongoing fluctuations.

Ultimately, although the outcome of this October seems uncertain, it raises questions about the resilience of the bitcoin market to economic hazards and global monetary decisions. This month’s outcome could lay the foundations for a new dynamic, either towards a solid recovery or continued volatility as evidenced by Polymarket’s forecasts.