Red September? Crypto Markets Start Cautiously as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Show Mixed Signals

September has long carried a reputation as a difficult month for cryptocurrencies. Historical performance shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 3.77% decline each September since 2013, a trend that has earned the month the label “Red September.” Despite this track record, the crypto market began the new month with a modestly positive tone following a quiet weekend.

Crypto Sentiment Slows as September Begins

Sentiment indicators reflect this caution. According to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, market sentiment is at 49, considered neutral. This is slightly higher than yesterday’s 46, which signaled fear, but it marks a sharp pullback from mid-August, when the index reached 75. The change suggests a cooling environment as traders enter a month often associated with weaker performance.

Adding to uncertainty is the wider economic backdrop. The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on September 16–17 is expected to be a significant event. Market expectations currently assign an 87% probability to a 0.25% interest rate cut. 

While a potential rate cut could provide support for risk assets, September’s historically weak performance in crypto tempers optimism. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are showing early signs of strength for a positive open on Tuesday, despite recent market volatility, with core inflation remaining at 3.1%, above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Bitcoin Shows Modest Gains as Crypto Momentum Remains Soft

Bitcoin has risen more than 2% in the last 24 hours and is now trading around $110,000, though technical indicators suggest muted momentum.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 43, with its moving average at 42. Values below 50 indicate weakening momentum, leaning toward a bearish outlook, though levels remain above the oversold threshold of 30. The Average Directional Index is at 20.45, pointing to a lack of strong directional movement and a market trading sideways rather than trending.

On the prediction platform Myriad, participants assign a 75% probability that Bitcoin will retreat to $105,000, reflecting a cautious crypto market outlook despite recent gains.

Ethereum Shows Neutral Momentum Amid Whale Activity

Ethereum has slipped 0.5% over the last 24 hours. Its RSI is recorded at 52.50, while the signal line is higher at 56.77. These figures place it in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold, but with momentum easing.

The ADX currently sits at 25.99, placing Ethereum, the second-largest crypto, in a moderately trending environment. However, trend strength has been waning, suggesting a weakening move. Despite this, whale activity remains significant. Market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that large investors accumulated roughly 260,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, signaling continued confidence among major holders.

Key levels and market sentiment suggest where Ethereum could head in the near term:

• Support is first seen around $4,300, with a stronger base near $4,000 if that level gives way.
• Resistance comes into play near $4,490, while a firmer barrier stands around $4,900, a zone that could open the path for further gains if broken.
• On the prediction platform Myriad, traders show optimism, assigning a 77% probability that ETH will reach $5,000 by year-end.

XRP Remains Under Pressure

XRP has struggled since peaking at $3.6 in mid-July. The token has been trending downward, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. Over the last six sessions, it closed in negative territory, confirming persistent bearish momentum.

Yesterday, XRP ended at $2.75. It has since risen 2% to $2.81. While this represents a short-term gain, the price remains below the descending resistance trendline.

The RSI stands at 42.93, reflecting bearish momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The ADX is at 19.17, indicating very weak trend strength. This suggests that while the crypto has been in decline, the intensity of the trend is fading, which may lead to consolidation or the potential for a reversal.

Key technical levels and market expectations for XRP include:

• Immediate support is around $2.75, with a stronger support level near $2.50 if the first support fails.
• Immediate resistance comes at $2.90, aligned with the descending trendline, while a stronger resistance zone sits at $3.00–$3.05, which could mark the start of a recovery if surpassed.
• On the prediction platform Myriad, traders show a bearish bias, assigning a 78% probability that XRP will drop to $2.5 before climbing toward $4.

Across the crypto market, participants step into September with caution. Sentiment has cooled, history warns of weakness, and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision adds another layer of uncertainty. Whether this month repeats its difficult track record or breaks from it will depend on both market momentum and signals from policymakers.