Red September Resurfaces In Full Force

September once again catches up with the crypto market. After a promising start, the trend reversed with a brutality that hits the main capitalizations. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin show a sharp decline, exposing a marked exhaustion of the bullish momentum. As every year at the same time, the specter of a “Red September” reappears, fueled by weakened technical signals and a sharply declining market sentiment. Once again, the scenario of a red month seems to be drawing with insistence.

Technical indicators of growing bearish pressure

This Monday, Bitcoin closed the session at $112,769, down 2.19 % on the day, after briefly plunging to $111,986 following massive liquidations. This decline brings the crypto closer to the monthly red zone : a drop of only 4 % more would put September in the red, thus reviving a seasonal dynamic well known to investors.

Indeed, September is historically the worst month of the year for the market. The entire crypto market has not been spared. Total capitalization has lost 3.8 %, dropping below the $4 trillion mark. Meanwhile, traditional markets are holding up : the S&P 500 rises by 0.5 %, reaching 6,690 points, confirming a marked decoupling from cryptos.

Technical data reflect a clear exhaustion of the bullish momentum. Several major indicators reveal the following information :

• The RSI (Relative Strength Index) : at 44, it indicates a weakening momentum, as sellers dominate as long as the indicator stays below 50 ;

• The ADX (Average Directional Index) : at 17, it signals the absence of a clear trend ;

• The exponential moving averages (EMA) : The technical structure theoretically remains bullish (EMA50 > EMA200), but the current price is below the EMA50, which is unfavorable for buyers ;

• The Squeeze Momentum Indicator : reflects a consolidation phase without clear direction, often a precursor to sudden movements to come.

In the very short term, several key technical levels deserve particular attention : a first support is at $111,000, corresponding to the day’s low, while the true floor lies at $108,500. On the resistance side, the levels to break are $115,000 for an immediate rebound, and $118,000 to hope for a more structural reversal.

These signals confirm the loss of initiative by buyers, in a market environment where the absence of clear direction could lead to a sharp increase in volatility.

A fractured Bitcoin market : investor sentiment in full divergence

Beyond the technical signals, it is also the analysis of market sentiment that completes the current picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows a score of 45, the lowest score recorded since the beginning of the month.

Although this level remains in the neutral zone, it reveals a gradual shift towards caution, even worry. This growing gap between technical analysis and market sentiment is striking. Investors are still betting on a rebound, but on-chain data and the recent behavior of Bitcoin prices depict a very different scenario.

The comparison with traditional markets accentuates this contrast. The S&P 500 index is currently near its all-time highs, while cryptos are falling. This decoupling phenomenon may reflect a repositioning of capital, or a return of risk aversion towards more volatile assets like cryptos.

In the short term, the market remains deeply fractured, between bearish signals on one side and hopes for a rebound on the other. If the $112,000 support were to break decisively, a correction towards $108,500 or $105,000 could quickly begin. In the medium term, everything will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its bullish structure on moving averages, and above all, on the market’s reaction to a possible breach of the support.