Santiment Flags Dangerous Social Signals

The crypto market is wavering again, and the same question arises: has bitcoin finally hit rock bottom ? While analysts are getting carried away and predictions are proliferating, the Santiment platform calls for caution. According to it, the real market bottoms never occur when everyone is expecting them. Behind collective optimism, it sees a formidable emotional trap, where overconfidence could precede a new downturn. What if the worst is not over yet ?

The Illusion of Consensus on Social Networks

While bitcoin fell below 100,000 dollars, Santiment warns in its latest report against a phenomenon well known to experienced investors : the temptation to prematurely declare the end of a bearish cycle.

“Be careful when you see a massive consensus around a specific bottom“, insists the platform specialized in market sentiment analysis. It adds: “real market bottoms often form when the majority expects a further drop“.

This warning echoes a wave of optimism that appeared on social networks after bitcoin fell below 95,000 dollars on Friday, a decline that happened in a context of a retreat in tech stocks. For Santiment, this reaction is an alert signal, not a bullish confirmation.

Santiment’s analysis is based on several factual observations from recent days :

• Overconfident traders : the bitcoin drop was interpreted by many as a “bottom”, leading them to believe the market would start rising again ;

• A false sense of relief : breaking the psychological threshold of 100,000 $ reinforced this impression that “the worst is over” ;

• A classic historical pattern : according to Santiment, markets rarely reach their bottom when popular consensus affirms it ;

• The amplifying role of social networks : they favor the rapid spread of biased narratives, which can induce a false perception of market timing.

This dynamic of “predicting a market bottom” therefore resembles a reverse self-fulfilling prophecy: the more investors want to believe in a recovery, the more they risk facing a new decline.

For Santiment, these collective behaviors far from any analytical rigor distort market readability and complicate any rational decision-making.

Bitcoin ETFs as Signs of Capitulation

Beyond distrust of overly optimistic predictions, Santiment observes a sharp deterioration in the general sentiment on social networks, which strongly contrasts with the “bottom” narratives mentioned earlier.

The ratio of positive comments on bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level in over a month. At the same time, BTC’s social dominance surpassed 40 %, making it “the main topic of a conversation marked by great fear“. This shift in online discourse reflects a state of collective tension, where emotions largely override rational analysis.

This nervousness crystallized around Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy, falsely accused by some of selling bitcoins during the recent price fall. He formally denied these rumors in an interview, but the damage was done: mentions of his name exploded online at the same time as BTC’s fall, illustrating the power of spontaneous narratives in the crypto market.

There is no truth to this rumor.

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 14, 2025

In parallel, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of 1.17 billion dollars in three days, including 866 million in a single day, the second worst score ever recorded. Yet, Santiment sees these flows as a potential positive signal, stating that “large outflows have often coincided with market bottoms, marking panic among retail investors“.

These elements, although apparently contradictory, actually paint a picture of a market in full uncertainty, where investors’ hyper-reactivity can both blur signals and precipitate sudden movements.

While some analysts like Arthur Hayes or Tom Lee continue to target peaks at 200,000 dollars by year-end, the current trend remains marked by acute emotional volatility. In the short term, it is therefore likely that fluctuations will be dictated more by perception than fundamentals.