Immobilier

After two years of noticeable decline, the real estate market appears to have reached a turning point. According to Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, the correction in prices is nearing its end, paving the way for stabilization, or even a slight rebound in 2025. In Paris, the price per square meter has dropped by nearly 10% over two years, a similar decline observed throughout Île-de-France. This correction, exacerbated by rising interest rates, has allowed sales to gradually restart. However, the market's evolution will depend on several factors, including the continued decrease in credit rates and the ability of sellers to adjust their prices to match the new expectations of buyers.

Since January 1, 2025, the French real estate sector is entering a new era. The changes go beyond a simple revision of previous rules. They reflect a political will to strengthen ecological requirements and adapt the tax framework to an uncertain economic context. The ban on renting energy-rated G housing, for example, embodies this priority given to the energy transition. At the same time, major fiscal upheavals, such as the end of the Pinel scheme or the postponement of the Zero-Rate Loan, are redefining incentives for investors and households. Finally, the continuation of the "anti-Airbnb law" and the stability of notary fees complete this picture of reforms, where each measure shapes the delicate balance between the expectations of property owners, the needs of tenants, and environmental imperatives. These adjustments, far from being anecdotal, herald a profound transformation of the real estate market.

The year 2024 marks a major shift for the French real estate market. Indeed, the dynamics that have structured this sector for decades are gradually fading, giving way to profound changes. The massive decline in transactions, the hesitant restart of real estate purchasing power, and the growing importance of energy criteria are reshaping the priorities of buyers and sellers. These transformations go beyond the numbers: they reflect the cumulative impacts of the crisis that began in 2022 and economic uncertainties. Through their 2024 Real Estate Report, the Notaries of France shed light on these contrasting developments. Their analysis goes beyond mere observation. It explores short-term perspectives and opens pathways for a potential recovery in 2025. These projections illuminate immediate challenges, as well as the necessary adaptations to face a market in full transformation.

China, long seen as the unwavering engine of the global economy, is currently undergoing a major crisis. Years of double-digit growth, which symbolized its rapid ascent, have given way to a period of deep economic uncertainties. The fragility of its economic model, primarily based on investment and exports, is becoming increasingly evident. Issues such as the rise of public and private debts, the collapse of the real estate sector, and the emergence of the specter of deflation are exacerbating internal economic tensions. These dysfunctions raise a fundamental question: after decades of development often described as miraculous, can the Middle Kingdom still sustain its role as a pillar of global growth?

The real estate market is at the center of concerns in 2025, attracting attention from investors as much as from first-time buyers and economists. This evolution of mortgage rates, a true indicator of economic and financial health, plays a decisive role in this dynamic. Between 2023 and 2024, rates saw a significant decrease. Thus, they dropped from 4.5% to 3.23%, a change that illustrates both the effects of the European Central Bank’s flexible monetary policies and the banks' strategy to stimulate access to property ownership. This decline is not just a simple statistic. It has already increased the borrowing capacity of thousands of households, creating an unprecedented opportunity to revive an already fragile market. In a context marked by increased competition among financial institutions, this trend could intensify in 2025, potentially ushering in a new phase of growth for real estate.

China is at a pivotal economic turning point. As the combined effects of weak consumption, an intensified real estate crisis, and high unemployment hinder its development, Beijing has just announced an ambitious budget policy for 2025. The stated objective is clear: to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize an economy under significant pressure. To achieve these ambitions, the government plans a significant increase in public spending, coupled with a revision of its fiscal priorities. These measures, detailed during a national conference, reflect a firm commitment to support local communities, expand social benefits, and strengthen resources for struggling businesses. Such a strategy, centered around innovation and strategic technologies, also aims to revitalize trade exchanges in order to adapt debt rules. With this comprehensive approach, Beijing intends to lay the groundwork for more resilient economic growth and to address the structural challenges that hinder its trajectory.

The French real estate market is going through a turbulent period, despite signs of calm after two marked years of depression. Indeed, the figures recently published by the Notaries of France reveal a double observation: real estate prices have dropped, but this decrease has not been enough to revive sales. Thus, in 2024, the number of transactions has seen a spectacular drop, illustrating a deep blockage in the sector. This situation, both paradoxical and alarming, raises questions about the factors that are hindering the market's revival and the economic and political dynamics that amplify its complexity.

The year 2023 marked a significant break in the evolution of the wealth of French households. After eight consecutive years of growth, it experienced a decline to 14,567 billion euros, a drop of 0.9% compared to 2022. This downturn, confirmed by a study from Insee and the Bank of France, sheds light on profound changes in the French economy. Mainly attributable to the drop in real estate prices, this phenomenon reflects the impact of recent monetary decisions, notably the increase in the European Central Bank's key interest rates, which has raised the cost of loans and dampened demand. Real estate, once an essential driver of household wealth, has been at the center of this crisis. Furthermore, prices, down by 4.7%, have weighed heavily on national wealth, although the 8.3% increase in financial assets has partially mitigated the losses.

Real estate taxation, already complex, is once again a topic of discussion. This time, it is property owners who find themselves at the center of a significant tax controversy. A technical error in the issuance of tax notices has led many property owners to be wrongly taxed on properties declared vacant. This unexpected situation, which affects an as yet undetermined number of taxpayers, sheds more light on the challenges related to data management and compliance with reporting obligations.

Property owners in France see their administrative horizon darken with the update of the real estate declaration. While this procedure, which became mandatory in 2023, had already caused confusion, an amendment has just been voted, promising to make the process even more complex. This news has gained increased importance as hundreds of thousands of households have recently faced administrative errors, shaking their confidence in the system. Thus, this new requirement raises more questions about the management of personal information and administrative simplification in the tax field.

The French real estate market is on the brink of undergoing a major upheaval. With the finance bill for 2025 currently under discussion, property owners find themselves at the center of significant tax reforms that could reshape the way real estate is taxed. Traditional tax deductions for capital gains, exemptions on primary residences, and other tax advantages that have benefitted investors in recent decades are now under scrutiny. These changes, which come amid a tense economic context and a sluggish real estate market, raise the question: how will property owners adapt to these new measures?

CAC 40 in difficulty: the real estate crisis in China hampers growth. How does the Paris stock exchange react?

In a global context marked by economic uncertainties, China is facing unprecedented challenges to maintain its growth. Indeed, for several months, the Asian giant, the world's second-largest economy, has been trying to break the deadlock, particularly through the revival of a deeply crisis-hit real estate sector. The Chinese government has just announced a new series of ambitious measures to stimulate its economy, with particular focus on the real estate market. These initiatives are crucial for China but also for the global economy, given the weight of the Middle Kingdom in trade exchanges and financial stability.

The real estate market in the Île-de-France is teetering, and the figures keep coming, relentless. This sector, once a solid pillar of the regional economy, now finds itself caught in an unprecedented downward spiral, where transactions are collapsing and prices continue their dizzying fall. The walls of the capital and its surroundings, once synonymous with stability, are cracking under the combined effects of soaring interest rates, economic uncertainty, and buyer reluctance. In this tense climate, where the cards are being reshuffled, buyers are regaining control while sellers are struggling to adapt.

The French economy demonstrates resilience in the second quarter of 2024, with GDP growth of 0.3% according to Insee. This performance, which exceeds forecasts, occurs in a context of significant slowdown in the real estate sector.

The French real estate sector is going through a major crisis, surpassing the darkest scenarios. The latest statistics from the Notaries of France reveal a sharp slowdown in transactions and a general devaluation of real estate properties.

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