The Decade Of Economic Abyss Has Begun

The global economy is about to experience its most sluggish decade since the 1960s. This forecast could well reshape economic power dynamics on a global scale. The alert comes from the World Bank, whose latest report, published on June 10, 2025, paints a bleak picture of the near future amidst increasing trade tensions and prolonged political uncertainties.

The global halt : growth under pressure

As trade tensions reignited by Trump become increasingly sustained, the World Bank sounds the alarm in its semi-annual report published on June 10. The global economy is heading toward its weakest decade since the 1960s, with sluggish average growth and persistent trade tensions.

The report announces a downgrade in forecasts for nearly two-thirds of countries, highlighting the aggressive trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The report states:

Almost two-thirds of countries worldwide see their growth forecasts revised downward.

The implementation of a universal 10 % tariff on all American imports, as well as targeted increases on steel and aluminum, has generated instability in financial markets, intensified in early April.

The effects of these protectionist decisions are multiple and already measurable :

• A revised downward global growth forecast : 2.3 % in 2025 (down from 2.7 % in January), and 2.6 % for 2027 ;

• The United States affected: forecast downgrades for 2025 and 2026 due to a drop in private consumption and investor distrust ;

• Tariffs deemed illegal in May but temporarily maintained following an appeal by the U.S. government ;

• The market crash in April, marked by a surge in volatility and significant uncertainty about future trade policies ;

• The risk of a global trade lockdown in the second half of the year, according to the World Bank, which talks about a possible “global trade seizure” and “turmoil in financial markets” ;

• A global recession not excluded but currently estimated at less than 10 % probability.

This accumulation of negative signals creates a tense economic climate, where the trade war initiated by Washington threatens the stability of the global system.

Advanced economies such as Japan, the United States, and the eurozone are experiencing significant downgrades in their outlooks, confirming the systemic nature of this emerging crisis.

Between resilience and fracture : China holds steady, the West wavers

Against the tide of this widespread gloom, China, a member of the BRICS group, stands out as an exception in the report. Unlike the United States, the European Union, or Japan, China’s growth forecasts have not been revised downward.

The World Bank attributes this stability to the strength of China’s financial system and mentions its ability to face “significant headwinds” amid “high global political uncertainties“.

This differentiation signals a possible shift in the global economic hierarchy. While the United States suffers a contraction in private consumption and declining investor confidence, Beijing appears to be capitalizing on the situation by presenting itself as a pole of relative stability.

Maintaining Chinese forecasts could strengthen its position on the international economic stage, especially if trade tensions persist and further weaken Western economies.

This imbalance could have notable effects on alternative financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies. If protectionist policies continue, investors may keep seeking safe-haven assets, such as bitcoin, which is becoming less volatile, decoupled from traditional geopolitical tensions.